@statsguy@mas.to avatar

statsguy

@[email protected]

Medical statistician. Foodie. Gardener. Cebollista. Political views: reality-based.

Fully paid-up member of the Guardian Reading Tofu Eating Wokerati.

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@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

Fuck off Zurcher.

This is not some good faith difference of interpretation. It's one side blatantly lying about what happened.

Watch how the NY Times have covered this and see if you can learn something.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c7510l1135wt?post=asset%3A1816bc12-6953-487f-8cd1-99264c1bc5cd#post

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

I find it deeply troubling that the government has given themselves powers to confiscate phones from people who are not even suspected of, much less convicted of, any crime.

Reminder: no matter how much the government and their client media try to make you think otherwise, it is not illegal to come to the UK to claim asylum.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm240jvnen0o

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

So according to the UK government, Greta Thunberg is now a dangerous terrorist.

I'm beginning to think the UK government may have lost its moral compass.

https://news.sky.com/story/greta-thunberg-arrested-at-a-protest-supporting-palestine-action-hunger-strikers-13486842

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

When you look at the catastrophic damage that is already causing, and then you look at governments all over the world saying that they want to keep burning fossil fuels for decades to come and making things even worse, the only question I find I can ask is:

"What the absolute fuck is wrong with people?"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g4enlp6kzo

@randahl@mastodon.social avatar randahl , to random

Here is my Ukraine peace proposal:

  1. Putin is sent to The Hague.
  2. Russian soldiers leave Ukraine including Crimea.
  3. Russia returns all kidnapped Ukrainian children.
  4. Russia releases all Ukrainian prisoners.
  5. Russia pays damages for everything their war has destroyed.
  6. Russia pays damages to Ukrainian families who have lost family members.
  7. Russia pays damages to every person who has been tortured, abducted or otherwise criminally mistreated.
  8. Ukraine becomes a member of the EU.
statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@randahl I could definitely get behind that, but I think you need to add one more point to it:

  1. Ukraine joins NATO
@randahl@mastodon.social avatar randahl , (edited ) to random

Who will win the Ukraine war?

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@randahl Ukraine will definitely win in the end. I am very optimistic about that.

The only question is how long it is before that happens and how much damage Putin can inflict in the meantime. I am less optimistic about that. It's hard to see the war ending until there is a new occupant of the White House who isn't a Russian asset.

@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar ChrisMayLA6 , to random

If the Covid Inquiry is right & the UK's response to the pandemic could have been achieved without the series of lockdown's in 2020/21, then the Tories' culpability for the country's current socio-economic malaise is even greater than we thought.

If lockdown had been avoided, a generation of school children would have been saved from disruption that will refract through their lives, and a range of businesses (and sectors) would not have been so fatally disrupted.

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@amokura @ChrisMayLA6 It's definitely possible that lockdowns could have been avoided altogether. Japan, which was far better prepared for covid, never had mandatory lockdowns because their other disease control methods worked well.

Whether it would have been realistic to expect those effective public health measures to be implementable in a UK setting is another question.

But if the answer to that is no, the next question should be how we can make it realistic.

@junesim63@mstdn.social avatar junesim63 , to random

FFS, they clearly want to collapse our health services.

"More than 600,000 overseas health workers and their families who arrived in the UK as part of the so-called “Boriswave” of arrivals could wait up to 25 years to apply to settle if they have claimed benefits, under the plans"

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/nov/20/labour-tighter-rules-benefits-housing-people-migrating-to-uk-shabana-mahmood

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@junesim63 I am very nervous about what this means for my Mum's care home. The place simply couldn't function without immigrants.

@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar ChrisMayLA6 , to random

If the Labour Party thinks that following the Danish Social Democrats' callous & vindictive refugee policy will help them electorally, then they've not actually been paying attention to Danish politics.

While attracting some far Right voters the Danish SDs have also lost a lot of support & look about to lose control of the Copenhagen mayoralty for the first time.

Moreover the normalisation of anti-refugee rhetoric & policy has emboldened new Right parties to emerge!


h/t FT

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@ChrisMayLA6 It's surely been obvious for some time that Labour's lurch to the far right can never be a successful electoral strategy.

I find it so puzzling why they embrace it so wholeheartedly anyway. They must surely know they're leading their party into oblivion.

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

So my new policy for dealing with large companies in regulated industries (think banks, utility companies, airlines etc) when they do a bad thing is you get in touch with their customer service team and give them ONE CHANCE to put things right, and if they don't do it promptly, you make a a formal complaint.

Customer service teams in large companies are expert in sounding helpful while spending weeks, if not months, not solving your problem. It's harder for them to ignore formal complaints.

statsguy OP ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

A recent example: when my direct debit for my water bill went out at the beginning of October, I noticed it was quite a bit higher than usual. So I checked the bill and checked my meter, and I could see they'd read the meter incorrectly and thought I'd used a lot more water than I had.

Got in touch with them and gave them the correct meter reading, and they just faffed around without actually doing anything about it.

Made a formal complaint just over a week ago, and my refund arrived today.

@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar ChrisMayLA6 , to random

I've always had a lot of time for Julian Richer; not least as he has demonstrate there are better ways to be in business!

Now, h is also right to focus on the role of luck (both good & bad) in society, to argue that even if we want a meritocracy we are far away from that right now.

Those who do well & then down-play the role of luck in their lives, also fail to see how bad luck can wreck others' lives (and therefore why the state must be there for them).

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/nov/17/luck-good-fortune-world-success-people

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@ChrisMayLA6 Oh yes, very true. I've had ups and downs in my career. I am very aware that the ups were partly my own hard work and partly good luck.

And conversely the downs were partly my poor decisions and partly bad luck.

I like to think of life a like a game of backgammon. There's a lot of skill in it, but there's nothing you can do about it when your opponent rolls that double 6.

@randahl@mastodon.social avatar randahl , to random

Predictable like clockwork, Trump accuses the newly released Epstein e-mails of being a hoax.

How does that even work?

These e-mails came from the Epstein Estate. They were stored on and timestamped by a Gmail server. They were reviewed by the FBI and shared with Republicans on The House Oversight Committee, so how could Democrats fake that?

Is he saying Democrats took a time machine back to 2011 to get Jeffrey Epstein to write that Trump spent hours with one of the rape victims?

Come on.

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@randahl It doesn't have to make sense, he just has to say it and the MAGA faithful will just believe it.

At least some of them will. Supporting a known paedophile looks like it's already crossed a line for a handful of them.

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

Isn't it funny that no-one at the BBC had to resign when they edited something Corbyn said to the point where they actually changed the entire meaning of what he said.

I wonder what the difference is?

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jan/18/bbc-trust-says-laura-kuenssberg-report-on-jeremy-corbyn-was-inaccurate-labour

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

Here's a question for people who know more about solar PV panels than I do.

If the sun is shining, you definitely generate more electricity with south-facing panels than north-facing ones (in the northern hemisphere).

But what if it's cloudy? You still generate some electricity then. Does it then matter which way the panels are pointing or will you generate just as much no matter which direction they point in?

@stux@mstdn.social avatar stux , (edited ) to random

Random poll:

Would you visit the US in it's current state? Either for vacation or travel. For Americans, imagine you would visit your country from somewhere else

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@stux No.

TBH, it's been many years since I would have contemplated going there for fun, but I have been on a few business trips over the years.

If my employer were to ask me to go there now I would politely refuse.

@EUCommission@ec.social-network.europa.eu avatar EUCommission , to random

We’re launching a bold plan to make high-speed rail the fastest, more sustainable way to travel across Europe by 2040.🚆

It’s a realistic timeline to remove bottlenecks, unlock investment, and harmonise rail systems.

For passengers, this means:

⌚ Shorter travel times
💺 Faster, more comfortable, and reliable trains
🌙 Expanded night train services

🔗 https://link.europa.eu/hDyYBG

ALT
statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar
@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

Happy Halloween to all those who celebrate, but especially to my fellow statisticians

ALT
@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar ChrisMayLA6 , to random

This is not said enough, so Steve Cushion is right:

we should not think of state pensions as a 'benefit' rather we should see this as an actor of 'intergenerational solidarity'.... its how we make commune with those who have worked before us, and how we establish that our society is a community.

Forgetting that leaves us with a politically anaemic view of the positive role of the state in producing the society we want & need.

ALT
statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@ChrisMayLA6 You could make exactly the same argument that sickness benefits are not benefits but rather an act of inter-health-status solidarity, or that unemployment benefits are acts of inter-employment-status solidarity.

Would you? And if not, what's different about pensions?

@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar ChrisMayLA6 , to random

So, I wonder what sort of (untraceable) phone calls were made between people at No.10 & Rachel Reeves letting agents, to encourage them to blame some who has now left their firm for the licensing mistake on Reeves family home rental?

Call me cynical but there seems to be a world of difference to how Angela Rayner's troubles were 'dealt' with & how Reeves have played out; it almost like the no.10 goons wanted rid of Rayner, but have been more forthright in protecting Reeves?

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@Photo55 @ChrisMayLA6 I am perfectly willing to believe that Reeves's failure to get a license was not a deliberate decision, but a mistake made in good faith.

But Rayner's failure to pay the correct stamp duty was also not a deliberate decision, but a mistake made in good faith.

So why the different treatment?

@nixCraft@mastodon.social avatar nixCraft , to random

What is a programming language you learned and mastered, but that is now completely obsolete in your work?

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@nixCraft BBC Basic

@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar ChrisMayLA6 , to random

So after Angela Rayner was forced to resign of a housing management issue it now transpires the Chancellor has also broken (a different) housing law; this time renting a house out without a licence in an area where such a license was required.

We're going to see a lot of briefing form No.10 about how this is completely different from Rayner, but as so often Keir Starmer will make a decision based on how seriously the right wing press take the infraction....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd04d0yxnrvo

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@ChrisMayLA6 And on how much he'd quite like to get rid of the perpetrator in the first place

@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar ChrisMayLA6 , (edited ) to random

To no-one's real surprise Labour has lost the Caerphilly by-election to Plaid Cymru... Plaid took the seat with a 47% share of the vote, but Reform managed to gain (pretty much from a standing start) 36%, while Labour saw a majority drop to 11% (all, on a slight larger turnout of 50%).

Its not good news for Labour, but most disappointingly the Greens vote share dropped from a previous constituency high of around 15% in 2021 to almost (but not quite) zero.


h/t FT

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@ChrisMayLA6 I actually don't find it disappointing, and I speak as a Green Party member.

What I take away from that is that progressive voters are smart enough to vote tactically when it seems appropriate, as it clearly was here.

(Not that they always will be, of course, but at least they can sometimes do it.)

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

So if you're a privatised water company you can pump raw sewage into rivers and nobody does anything about it, but if you're a private citizen you can get fined for pouring coffee down a drain.

Please make it make sense.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg435gg66gpo

@randahl@mastodon.social avatar randahl , to random

What I have learned this month:

— Guns are safe
— Normal painkillers are dangerous
— Peaceful protests are an expression of hate
— Killing sailors suspected of a crime is totally legit
— Having a Nazi group chat is fine
— Cowering to Putin is not a sign of weakness

Clearly, this is the dumbest, most dysfunctional US government in my lifetime.

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@randahl Yeah. When Dubya got elected president I thought "surely the US will never again elect such an idiot as president".

How wrong I was. Dubya looks positively statesmanlike in comparison.

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

Somebody pass me the world's tiniest violin please.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ydpmy7mj1o

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

"A major legal claim has been filed in the UK against pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson, accusing the firm of knowingly selling baby powder contaminated with asbestos"

Only allegations at this stage, we need to wait until the evidence is tested in court.

But if the evidence does stand up in court, I really hope that individual J&J executives will face criminal charges. Really not adequate just to fine the company.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c797wv928g8o

@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar ChrisMayLA6 , to random

A public service post:

Follow the money....

Who does Nigel Farage work for....

ALT
statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@ChrisMayLA6 And that's just the stuff he admits too. I don't see Putin on that list.

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

"COVID-19 could cost UK £7 billion a year without autumn vaccinations"

Tell me again how we can't vaccinate people under 75 because "it's not cost effective"?

Fun fact 1: most people under the age of 53 haven't had a covid booster since 2021

Fun fact 2: the duration of useful immunity from covid vaccines is a few months

https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/covid-19-could-cost-uk-7-billion-a-year-without-autumn-vaccinations/199754/

@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar ChrisMayLA6 , (edited ) to random

I've written about the false economies of austerity before but here is a corker of an example:

this winter, to save money, frontline NHS staff are having to pay for their covid jabs, at a time when staff absences due to sickness are already too high...

Its a classic bit of costs-based policy making with no appreciation of the resulting (higher) costs.

Ir sums up what's wrong with decision makers myopic obsession with immediate cost(s).

h/t NHSManagersNet

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@ChrisMayLA6 They have a very narrow perspective in their cost effectiveness analysis. The cost of people taking time off work due to covid is explicitly excluded from the analysis.

Also sickness benefits, and any healthcare costs resulting from long covid.

In other words, pretty much all the things that make covid expensive.

So no wonder they conclude that covid jabs are not cost effective for all but the most vulnerable.

Utterly bonkers, if you ask me.

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@ChrisMayLA6 @HarriettMB It's very difficult indeed to discern. I find it utterly baffling.

My guess is that there isn't really a motive and it's just pure and simple incompetence, but honestly that is just a guess.

@_elena@mastodon.social avatar _elena , to random

Super excited to start watching Mel Brooks’ cult classic “Spaceballs” (1987) on the eve of my conversation with @ozoned on @firesidefedi .

It’s not my first viewing - probably the 5th or 6th - but it’s been a looong time and I want to refresh my memory for the quiz at the end 🤗

Good night Fedi friends! 🌝

ALT
statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@_elena @ozoned @firesidefedi May the Schwartz be with you!

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

Anyway, here's your daily bit of good news:

"Renewables overtake coal as world's biggest source of electricity"

We need to go a lot further and faster to decarbonise the global economy, of course, but at least that's one welcome move in the right direction.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2rz08en2po

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

I'll tell you what's un-British, Keir:

Supporting genocide.

I don't care how many Union Jacks you hang behind you when you support it. It's still un-British.

Protesting against genocide, however, that seems to me a pretty British thing to do.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1wgx5v90vyo

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

This is great stuff from Zack Polanski.

It's so refreshing to see a politician challenge the lies of the Tories/Labour/Reform that all our problems are down to immigration.

They are really not. Let's focus on fixing the actual problems, and not on pretending that immigration is the problem.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/oct/03/migration-britain-superpower-labour-green-party

@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar ChrisMayLA6 , to random

So its hard to see once the argument has been won that private schools' educational services should be liable to VAT, why it would be the case that private healthcare should continue to be largely exempt?

oh, that is unless you're being paid by people linked to private heathcare, then your views might see a distinction lost on the rest of us.....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0knr2dmn4mo

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@ChrisMayLA6 @Kaetchi And make politicians travel by public transport as well if they need to get anywhere.

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

"Antifa, short for "anti-fascist", is a loosely organised movement of primarily far-left activists."

My, how the Overton Window has shifted at the BBC if being anti-fascist now makes you "far left"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cddmn6ge6e2o

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

Fuck you Starmer, these deaths are on you.

You constantly talk about "stopping the boats", but you refuse to do the one thing that would actually stop them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2jg20pdm0o

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

I know I've said it before, but I think it bears repeating: we could all reliably get same day GP appointments and see hospital consultants within a week by now if the government had put half as much energy into fixing the NHS as they spend being mean to foreigners

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn858lx34vvo

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@rimu@piefed.social avatar rimu turdburglar And it's worth noting that you don't have to use AWS for S3 buckets. I use iDrive, who are quite a bit cheaper than Amazon, and you can also opt to have your buckets on European servers, which may be a plus.

I think they have generous discounts in the first year to hook you in, but even after that they're still cheaper than Amazon.

@gamingonlinux@mastodon.social avatar gamingonlinux , to random

Dame Rachel told BBC Newsnight: "Of course, we need age verification on VPNs - it's absolutely a loophole that needs closing and that's one of my major recommendations."

Could the UK please stop being morons about tech for one day.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn438z3ejxyo

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@gamingonlinux Sounds a bit ambitious to me. I'd be happy if we could get our government to stop being morons about tech maybe for an hour on every 4th Friday and work up gradually to a whole day from there.

@EUCommission@ec.social-network.europa.eu avatar EUCommission , to random

What lets you travel freely across 29 different European countries?

It’s Schengen, of course! So, you’re free to live your best European Summer!

Schengen is one of the world’s largest zones of free movement. It has reshaped how over 450 million Europeans live, work, and travel.

It’s a symbol of freedom, collaboration, and opportunity, turning the promise of Europe into an everyday reality!

Wherever you are in Europe, we hope you’re having a great summer.

More 👉 https://europa.eu/!k7Gykf

Mountain landscape in the Pieniny National Park at the foot of the Tatra Mountains. Pieniny Park is located on the border of Poland and Slovakia © Adobe Stock, proslgn
Photo of Menton, a town on the border between France and Italy Freesurf © Adobe Stock, Freesurf
Lake Konigsee on German-Austrian border © Adobe Stock, Michal Rezny

ALT
statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@EUCommission Greetings from the UK. (Sad face)

@404mediaco@mastodon.social avatar 404mediaco , to random

The British government is asking people to delete their emails to reduce stress on data centers.

🔗 https://www.404media.co/uk-asks-people-to-delete-emails-in-order-to-save-water-during-drought/

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@404mediaco Is this the same British government that wants everyone to use more AI?

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

"Under the new legislation, businesses will have to pay their suppliers within 30 days of receiving a valid invoice, unless otherwise agreed"

unless otherwise agreed

That is a loophole the size of a planet. I can tell you exactly how it will work. The large company will just tell the small company that their standard payment terms are 90 days, and they will need to agree to them, or they don't get the work.

https://news.sky.com/story/companies-who-pay-suppliers-late-to-be-fined-13404320

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

Just heard on the lunchtime news that there are no reports of any deaths or serious injuries anywhere as a result of the Pacific tsunami.

Take a bow, emergency planners of the Pacific region.

With so much crappy news around at the moment, it's lovely to hear that sometimes, people do their job really well and lives get saved.

@statsguy@mas.to avatar statsguy , to random

Oh gosh, it's true, you really can enter a completely nonsense phrase into Google, ask for its meaning, and lo and behold, Google's AI will make shit up.

So if you've ever wondered what "to grow an avocado, you have to slap the squirrel" means, now you know.

ALT
@Remittancegirl@mstdn.social avatar Remittancegirl , to random

So, I wonder what will happen when Trump doesn’t back down from the 105% tariffs on China, and China calls in US debt.

Trump’s instinct will be to default.

(p.s. Please read down the thread. There are some far more knowledgeable people on the thread than me. I’m using ‘calling in debt’ very loosely. I mean the non-renewal of treasury securities)

https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@JessTheUnstill @mloxton @Remittancegirl @MelissaBenyon Not sure the first of those gets us out of this. This means Vance becomes president. I don't see anything to make me think that would be an improvement.

@aeryn_thrace@mastodon.social avatar aeryn_thrace , to AcademicChatter group

Keep reading about all the attacks on the humanities all over the world. The rallying cry seems to be that universities need to focus on STEM to move into the future.

And yet I have to ask, can we even move into the future successfully without the humanities, given how much foundational knowledge for STEM can only be found in the humanities?

And further, without the humanities, what exactly do we want to move into the future for?

academicchatter@a.gup.pe icon AcademicChatter group

statsguy ,
@statsguy@mas.to avatar

@olibrendel @aeryn_thrace academicchatter@a.gup.pe icon AcademicChatter group Yes, that's true. But the biggie here is that science has already told us, loud and clear, that we need to reduce CO2 emissions, and yet we are not doing it.