Indicators
Weather, demand keep fruit inflation at five-year high
As fruit prices climb to unprecedented heights, families are feeling the pinch in their wallets. With inflation averaging a staggering 13.2% in early 2025—marking the steepest rise in five years—many are rethinking their grocery lists. Meanwhile, the price of vegetables has taken a surprising downturn.
India's unemployment rate rises to 5.2% in September, driven by rural job losses
As of September, India's unemployment rate climbed to 5.2%, with rural areas particularly impacted, affecting men and women alike. Urban centers also felt the squeeze, as youth unemployment reached a concerning three-month high.
IMF growth revision reflects India's strong fundamentals: Piyush Goyal
According to the latest forecast from the IMF, India's economy is set to grow by 6.6% in FY26, a testament to its solid economic backbone and adaptability. The surge in consumer spending and significant infrastructure projects are propelling this growth.
Unemployment rate rises marginally to 5.2 pc in September: Government survey
In September, India's job market experienced a modest uptick in unemployment, hitting 5.2% for those aged 15 and older. This rise primarily affected rural job seekers and urban women. On a brighter note, the Worker Population Ratio achieved its peak since May 2025, fueled by the growth of the female workforce.
IMF raises India’s FY26 growth outlook to 6.6%
The International Monetary Fund has increased India's economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2026 to 6.6 percent. This positive outlook comes despite recent US tariffs on Indian goods. India is projected to achieve the highest growth rate among advanced economies, emerging markets, and developing countries for the current and next fiscal years.
Inflation makes case for rate cut, but growth indicators are benign
Inflation has dipped to its lowest point in eight years, opening the door for potential interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India, with analysts suggesting a reduction of 25 to 50 basis points. However, uncertainty looms as the economic growth outlook and trade issues remain in flux.
Trump tariffs to slow global growth to 3.2%; India's growth to stay strong with 6.6% in FY26: IMF report
India emerges as a bright spot in a slowing global economy, projected by the IMF to grow at 6.6% in 2025 despite rising US tariffs. While global output eases due to trade frictions and investment uncertainty, India's resilience is attributed to strong domestic consumption and policy stability.
India's CPI inflation may remain at 2.2% in FY26, below RBI's forecast of 2.6%: SBI Research
India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for FY26 is expected to remain at 2.2 per cent, much lower than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) forecast of 2.6 per cent, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI).
India's wholesale inflation slows to 0.13% in September
India's wholesale inflation decelerated to 0.13% in September, a significant drop from August's 0.52%, driven by falling food and fuel prices. Retail inflation also eased to a multi-year low of 1.5%, remaining below the RBI's target. This indicates a sustained moderation in price pressures across both wholesale and retail segments.
India's growth cycle may be bottoming out, domestic fundamentals strong for pick-up in growth: HSBC MF
India's economic growth is showing signs of recovery, bolstered by strong domestic factors like favorable interest rates, falling crude oil prices, and a normal monsoon. While global trade uncertainties pose a near-term challenge to private investment, a medium-term uptrend is anticipated, driven by government infrastructure spending and a rebound in real estate. The outlook for Indian equities remains positive.
Must Watch
Pre-testing exercise held for new household income survey
India's statistics ministry pre-tested its National Household Income Survey, a first-ever pan-India initiative to measure household income, set for launch in February 2026. The survey will capture diverse income sources and expenditures, crucial for economic indicators and poverty analysis. Recommendations include building public confidence and ensuring data collection sensitivity.
India's retail inflation falls to 8-year low in September
India's retail inflation dropped to a near three-year low of 1.5% in September, primarily due to falling food prices. This easing inflation, below the RBI's target, has economists anticipating a potential rate cut in December, especially if growth momentum falters.
India's retail inflation in September hits over 8-year low, eases below RBI's lower end of target range
India's retail inflation fell to 1.54% in September, the lowest since June 2017. Food prices saw a significant drop, contributing to this easing. This trend provides room for potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India. The central bank has lowered its inflation forecast for the fiscal year. The outlook remains benign, though global factors pose risks.
General govt capex-to-GDP likely to stay around 5% in FY26, lower than FY25P and FY24 peak: Report
General government capital spending is projected at 5 percent of GDP in FY26. This figure is slightly lower than FY25 estimates and significantly below the FY24 peak. Public capex growth has been strong in early FY26. States also show healthy momentum in their capital spending. This sustained focus on investment is positive for economic growth.
India is one of the best places to deploy capital, says ACTIS chairman Torbjorn Caesar
London-based Actis plans to invest over $2 billion in India's infrastructure over the next three to four years, building on its previous investments. The firm sees India as a top global destination for capital due to its stable and transparent market, particularly in infrastructure, despite geopolitical flux.
Broader consumption may take another quarter to recover; Q2FY26 earnings of companies likely mixed: Report
Broader consumption demand in India is anticipated to fully recover in the next quarter, with some sequential improvement expected in high-frequency economic indicators. Companies may continue inventory adjustments before consumption patterns normalize. The Q2FY26 earnings season is projected to be mixed, with certain sectors showing growth while others face pressure.
