@ZLabe@fediscience.org cover
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar

ZLabe

@[email protected]

Climate Scientist (Atmospheric) at Climate Central | PhD | Sharing data-driven stories | Harrisburg, PA | Views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are only my own

My research and communication interests coincide with disentangling patterns of climate change from climate variability using data-driven methods. Also, scary movie fan!

#Arctic #ClimateChange #DataViz #MachineLearning #OpenScience #Python #SciComm #Weather #wxMastodon #wxTwitter

This profile is from a federated server and may be incomplete. View on remote instance

@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

My Arctic observation versus climate model comparison page has been updated through 2025 (along with the addition of a new visualization or two). I updated this page for each season. https://zacklabe.com/climate-model-projections/

@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising. The planet keeps warming in response. And that added heat shows up in the extremes and impacts. This is really basic stuff.

Data from https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/

Graphic shows three line graph time series of monthly carbon dioxide abundance in ppm (blue line), monthly methane abundance in ppb (red line), and monthly nitrous oxide in ppb (purple line). Graphs are all shown from January 1984 through January 2026/October 2025. Current levels of CO2 are 429 ppm. Current levels of methane are 1946 ppb. Current levels of nitrous oxide are 339 ppb. All graphs show long-term increasing trends along with some interannual variability and seasonality.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Yet again, January temperatures were more than 5°C above the 1981-2010 climatology around Svalbard and the Barents Sea in the . This coincided with a lack of sea ice, which is consistent with the long-term trend for this time of year.

Data from https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

Map of the Svalbard region showing 2-m air temperature anomalies in January 2026. Red shading is shown for warmer than average temperatures, and blue shading is shown colder than average temperatures. Anomalies are calculated relative to 1981-2010. All areas are warmer than average.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

A data-driven mosaic of our warming planet - now updated through 2025 🥵

Download graphic at https://zacklabe.com/climate-change-indicators/

Heat map-style graphic showing monthly mean global surface air temperature anomalies from January 1850 to December 2025. There is a long-term warming trend evident in each month. Blue shading is shown for colder months, and red shading is shown for warmer months. Annotations are shown for the year of each warmest respective month. All of these records have occurred within the 2023 to 2025 period in this dataset. Anomalies here are calculated relative to a 1850-1900 baseline. Data is from NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI NOAAGlobalTemp 6.0.0.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

2025 was the hottest year on record for ocean heat content. Unfortunately, we now say this every year. 🥹

"In addition to setting a new record in 2025, the global ocean continues to show sustained and intensified warming."

Bar graph showing global ocean heat content change in the upper 2000 m from the late 1950s through 2025. There is a long-term warming in the time series, which is using IAP/CAS data.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

I’ll be working this weekend to update my daily near-real time website visualizations for the switch from 2025 to 2026. Unfortunately, this means manually updating the style for each one. Thanks for your patience... More soon!

Temperatures graphics ready to go though: https://zacklabe.com/climate-change-indicators/

Graph showing daily global mean near-surface air temperatures for 2026. This is also compared to the daily data from the 1971-2000 average, 1981-2010 average, and 1991-2020 average. Annotations are also shown to the current year with the other years from 1940 to 2025 and a threshold of 2°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level. There is a strong seasonal cycle, with a peak during the boreal summer season. There is a long-term warming trend. 2024 is also indicated, which was the warmest year on record. Data is from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis and updated through 1 January 2026.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Have a great weekend! Here's your Friday ice update - sea ice extent is currently the 2nd lowest on record (JAXA data)...

• about 670,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,190,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 1,750,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 2,190,000 km² below the 1980s mean

More graphics: https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/

Line graph time series of 2025's daily Arctic sea ice extent compared to decadal averages from the 1980s to the 2010s. The decadal averages are shown with different colored lines with purple for the 1980s, blue for the 1990s, green for the 2000s, and white for the 2010s. Thin white lines are also shown for each year from 2000 to 2024. 2025 is shown with a thick gold line, which is currently a record low for the current date. There is a long-term decreasing trend in ice extent for every day of the year shown on this graph between October and January by looking at the decadal average line positions.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

The freeze-up in the Hudson Bay (Canada) has been one of the latest on record for sea ice. This is consistent with the long-term trend of a lengthening open water season.

Data from https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index

Line graph time series showing daily Arctic sea ice extent in the Hudson Bay for 2025 compared to each year from 1979 to 2024. There is a large seasonal cycle on this graph and a long-term decreasing trend for days during the melt season from June to December.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

October 2025 was Earth’s 3rd warmest October on record.

Check out more climate stats in our new monthly reports: https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-briefings/october-2025

Our public webinar describing November will be next week! https://climatecentral-org.zoom.us/webinar/register/8817634927264/WN_xaQHkm1oSvavtG9PZO9hpw#/registration

Global temperatures bar graph for October with below-average in blue and above-average in yellow. Global temps are warming with data provide by NOAAGlobalTempv6
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Have a wonderful to everyone that celebrates!

Grateful for the chance to share science with a wide audience, and even more grateful for all of you who support and encourage this work. Thanks for being here. 🥰

@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Many areas around coastal regions of the Ocean are getting wetter in November. The largest trends are found in the Barents-Kara Seas region, which correlates with warmer SSTs and less sea ice.

Polar stereographic map showing November precipitation trends over the period of 1979 to 2024. Many coastal areas around the Arctic are getting wetter. Data is from GPCP.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Was there any coverage of the recent record warmth in both the Arctic and Antarctic? Multiple global datasets now confirm these records, and I think it's really quite striking.

Here's some very quick plots showing NOAAGlobalTempv6 data from October too. And see my earlier posts.

A line graph shows the time series of Antarctic mean surface temperature anomalies for each October from 1850 through 2025. There is a long-term increasing trend and large year-to-year variability. The mean surface temperature anomaly in October 2025 was 1.43°C for this region. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1910-2000 climate baseline. All data is from NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI NOAAGlobalTemp v6.0.0 on this graphic.

A line graph shows the time series of Antarctic mean surface temperature anomalies for each October from 1850 through 2025. There is a long-term increasing trend and large year-to-year variability. The mean surface temperature anomaly in October 2025 was 1.43°C for this region. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1910-2000 climate baseline. All data is from NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI NOAAGlobalTemp v6.0.0 on this graphic.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Take a look at this... Remarkable "warmth" last month across both polar regions when visualizing temperature departures by latitude. The x-axis is quite stretched out here compared to my usual monthly update of this graphic.

Data: GISTEMPv4 using their 1951-1980 baseline (data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/).

Bar graph showing zonal mean surface air temperature anomalies for the period of October 2025. All latitude bands observed above average temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

I wish there was better news than this headline. ⚒️🧪

"Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025 - reaching a record high" (https://globalcarbonbudget.org/fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-hit-record-high-in-2025/)

Line graph time series of global fossil CO2 emissions since the late 1950s to 2025. 2025 is at record high levels of 38.1 Gt CO2, which is an increase of 1.1%. Historical events, such as the first oil crisis and COVID-19 are annotated.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Greenhouse gas data is finally rolling in again, and my dashboard is back up-to-date. Unfortunately, the story hasn’t changed... 📈

More climate change indicator graphics at https://zacklabe.com/climate-change-indicators/

This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through October 2025. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 425 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1928 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 339 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA ESRL. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

While still warmer than any other years since the mid-1800s, sea surface temperatures in the northern half of the Atlantic Ocean remain well below their recent peak (i.e., climate change and climate variability).

Graphic using NOAA ERSSTv5 data (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/extended-reconstructed-sst).

Green line graph time series of average sea surface temperature anomalies for each October from 1850 through 2025 for only the North Atlantic. There is large interannual variability, but an overall long-term increasing trend. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1981-2010 baseline.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

📣 We just released a new free resource at Climate Central - a 72-slide deck introducing key facts about climate change, including its causes, impacts, and solutions. It also comes with speaker notes and links to customizable graphics for local storytelling. Hope it’s a useful tool for educators, communicators, and anyone sharing climate science.

➡️ https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/climate-change-key-facts (English and Spanish)

Screenshot of at least 20 slides on Climate Change: Key facts from Climate Central.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Here's a look at the extent of the "warmth" across the in October. This map uses my normal anomaly scaling for each month, but it clearly doesn't work for something this extreme.

Data from https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

Polar stereographic map showing 2-m air temperature anomalies in October 2025 for the Arctic Circle with red shading for warmer anomalies and blue shading for colder anomalies. Most areas are warmer than average. The baseline is a 1981-2010 reference period using ERA5 data.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

It's not every day that both poles set new monthly temperature records (see my earlier post). Last month also observed the warmest October on record for the Circle. Not great!!

Data provided by https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

Line graph time series of 2-m air temperature anomalies for the Arctic in every October from 1979 to 2025. There is a long-term warming trend, and 2025 is the warmest on record in this time series. Data is from ERA5 with a 1981-2010 climate baseline used for calculating the anomalies.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

"But perhaps the most consequential long-term loss for federal science is that of institutional knowledge and expertise — and the downstream effects on the training of early-career researchers."

"We lost people with decades of experience and everyone who was very early career, ...”

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-03575-7

@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Many important weather and climate data streams have gone silent as the U.S. government shutdown continues on.

As just one example, NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory did not release its regular monthly update for greenhouse gases, such as for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Our latest on Hurricane Melissa: "Melissa reaches Category 5 — fueled by climate change-driven ocean heat" https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-shift-index-alert/Hurricane-Melissa

@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

📣 The "U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters" data is back today through Climate Central (https://www.climatecentral.org/)! And more development of this tool soon!

➡️ Explore our new interactive website at https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters, which is now updated through the first half of 2025 and totaling over $101 billion from 14 individual events.

Map showing the U.S. 2025 Billion-Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters and highlights wildfires and severe weather so far through June 2025. Graphic is produced by Climate Central.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

"A third of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Climate Adaptation Science Centers are expected to drastically wind down and possibly close after Sept. 30."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2025/09/28/trump-climate-usgs-funding-shutoff/

@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

As a reminder, land areas (where we live) are warming around twice as fast as over the oceans. Subsequently, most of us are 'feeling' temperatures rising faster than the global mean record.

Graphic from https://zacklabe.com/climate-change-indicators/

Line graph time series showing global land surface temperatures (90°S to 90°N) in a red line and global mean (land+ocean) surface temperatures (90°S to 90°N) in a blue line. Temperatures are averaged annually from 1900 through 2024. Linear least squares trends are also shown from 1990 to 2024. The land is warming faster than the global mean.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Can’t read my own research publications (paywall). Can’t read the science news articles I’m interviewed for and quoted in (paywall). 🥹

ZLabe OP ,
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar

@JournalCRR Thank you!

@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Last month observed temperature departures more than 5°C above the 1981-2010 average across nearly the entire Kara Sea region and across parts of northern Siberia.

Data from https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

Polar stereographic map of a region across the Barents-Kara Seas of the Arctic. The map shows temperature anomalies with red being warmer than average and blue being colder than average relative to a 1981-2010 baseline using ERA5 data. Most places are warmer than average during this month of August 2025.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

air temperature rank by month over the satellite era - now updated through August 2025...

Heat map-style graphic showing monthly air temperature rankings in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level for each month from January 1979 to August 2025. There is a long-term warming trend evident in each month. Blue shading is shown for colder months, and red shading is shown for warmer months. A yellow number is shown for each grid box to display the actual temperature ranking. August 2025 was the 4th warmest August on record.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Temperature anomalies averaged over the last month (left), 3 months (center), and 12 months (right) across the Northern Hemisphere...

Data from @CopernicusECMWF ERA5 reanalysis.

Three orthographic maps showing 2-m air temperature anomalies in July 2025, May 2025 to July 2025, and August 2024 to July 2025. Red shading is shown for warmer anomalies, and blue shading is shown for colder anomalies. Most areas are warmer than average. The mean temperature anomaly for each map is also displayed. Anomalies are calculated relative to a 1981-2010 baseline.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Meanwhile, back in reality, global ocean heat content just updated through June 2025 and set a new record high. Time to wake up!

Data (anomalies) & methods from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/global-ocean-heat-content/

Line graph time series of global ocean heat content for the 0-2000 m layer for 3 year averages, yearly averages, and five years averages from the late 1950s to 2025. There is a long-term warming trend. The baseline is 1955-2006 for the zero reference to calculate the anomalies.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

More sad news for the polar community... Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) is shutting down.

We all lose here. The past 8 months have been unthinkable, and their consequences for the future even more so.

Screenshot from the ARCUS August 2025 newsletter: Dear ARCUS Community, It is with a mix of gratitude and sadness for our community that we share an important update about ARCUS’s future. After more than three decades of connecting, supporting, and facilitating collaboration within the U.S. Arctic research community, ARCUS will sunset its operations at the end of September 2025 and formally dissolve as a nonprofit organization. This decision comes after careful consideration and reflection on the changing needs of the Arctic research landscape. While ARCUS as an institution will close, the impact of the relationships, collaborations, and shared work we have fostered will continue to ripple through the community for years to come. We are profoundly grateful for the many individuals—past and present—who have served on our Board, worked on our staff, contributed as partners, and supported ARCUS’s mission with passion and dedication. We want to assure you that we remain active and committed right up to the end
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) averaged about 428 ppm in July 2025

10 years ago July averaged about 401 ppm

Preliminary data from NOAA at https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/

Red line graph time series of monthly carbon dioxide abundance from January 1959 through July 2025. There is a seasonal cycle and long-term increasing trend. Current levels of CO2 are at 428 ppm. This is the Keeling Curve graph. A line for CO2 10 years ago is also annotated.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

air temperature rank by month over the satellite era - now updated through July 2025...

Heat map-style graphic showing monthly air temperature rankings in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level for each month from January 1979 to July 2025. There is a long-term warming trend evident in each month. Blue shading is shown for colder months, and red shading is shown for warmer months. A yellow number is shown for each grid box to display the actual temperature ranking. July 2025 was the 9th warmest July on record.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Woah, the hot spot across the northern Pacific is even more prominent in last month's sea surface temperature map. This is really quite striking! Though the extratropics in both hemispheres are warmer than average too.

Data from NOAA OISSTv2.1 at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst

Global map showing sea surface temperature anomalies in July 2025 relative to 1982 to 2010. Most areas are warmer than average. Red is shown for warmer sea surface temperatures, and blue is shown for colder sea surface temperatures. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Check out our new interactive tools for monitoring ocean heat around the world: https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/rapid-ocean-warming-2025.

Using Climate Central's Ocean CSI system, you can find the influence of human-caused climate change on daily sea surface temperatures and around the paths of tropical cyclones.

Visualization show a heat-map of ocean sea surface temperature anomalies using data from NOAA OISSTv2.1 from 1982 to present. There is a long-term warming trend.

@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Every time I open LinkedIn, someone from a science agency shares an unplanned (forced) early retirement or RIF. Lately it’s NASA and EPA. In the spring, NOAA. I think people have no idea how deep this loss really is. I don’t know what rebuilding federal science looks like, but it won’t be simple or quick.

@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

I have a goal of adding one new visual per day at https://zacklabe.com/united-states-climate-indicators/, and this one was particularly eye-opening - sea surface temperatures averaged by year for the Caribbean... 🌀

Data from NOAA OISSTv2.1 (https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/noaa.oisst.v2.highres/).

Line graph time series of annual mean sea surface temperature anomalies from 1982 to 2024. There is a long-term increasing trend and 2024 is the warmest on record. Anomalies are relative to 1982-2010.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

It's been a long week. So here's just a pretty graphic for your Friday evening... Simulation of atmospheric aerosols in our intricate Earth system.

Sea salt (cyan), dust (magenta), black carbon (orange/red), and sulfates (green)

Created by NASA SVS (https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5552/)

Visualization of aerosols on a map of Earth moving with time.

@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

🚨 Friday ice update - sea ice extent is currently the lowest on record (JAXA data)...

• about 370,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,170,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 1,910,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 2,580,000 km² below the 1980s mean

See more at: https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/

Line graph time series of 2025's daily Arctic sea ice extent compared to decadal averages from the 1980s to the 2010s. The decadal averages are shown with different colored lines with purple for the 1980s, blue for the 1990s, green for the 2000s, and white for the 2010s. Thin white lines are also shown for each year from 2000 to 2024. 2025 is shown with a thick gold line. There is a long-term decreasing trend in ice extent for every day of the year shown on this graph between May and August by looking at the decadal average line positions.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

Every day is a trainwreck for climate science. Stay aware of what is happening, and speak out!

Fortunately, I saved all of these documents in advance of the rumors of the USGCRP (National Climate Assessment) being targeted (which I was really hoping were not true).

Access down: https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/

@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

🚨 Monday ice update - sea ice extent is currently the lowest on record for the date (JAXA data)...

• about 460,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,210,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 1,880,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 2,550,000 km² below the 1980s mean

More graphs: https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/

Line graph time series of 2025's daily Arctic sea ice extent compared to decadal averages from the 1980s to the 2010s. The decadal averages are shown with different colored lines with purple for the 1980s, blue for the 1990s, green for the 2000s, and white for the 2010s. Thin white lines are also shown for each year from 2000 to 2024. 2025 is shown with a thick gold line. There is a long-term decreasing trend in ice extent for every day of the year shown on this graph between May and August by looking at the decadal average line positions.
ALT
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar ZLabe , to random

More horrible science news...

"The NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center (NSIDC DAAC) learned yesterday that the Department of Defense (DoD) will stop processing and delivering the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) data no later than 30 June 2025."

Screenshot from NSIDC that says: "Dear Colleague: The NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center (NSIDC DAAC) learned yesterday that the Department of Defense (DoD) will stop processing and delivering the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) data no later than 30 June 2025. The SSMIS data are used as input for the following NSIDC DAAC-produced data sets, which will therefore stop processing no later than 30 June 2025:"
ALT
ZLabe OP ,
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar

This is a really big deal for everyone. This has major consequences for our ability to monitor our planet, especially across the polar regions (Antarctic/Greenland surface melt, sea ice data, etc.).

There are alternative data sources in some cases, but it will take time to prepare these products.

ZLabe OP ,
@ZLabe@fediscience.org avatar

Meanwhile sea-ice extent is currently the lowest on record for today's date. The melt season has only just started, and we need all of the observational data we can get. Not less.