Jerome Powell Speech Highlights: Powell says downside risks to employment may fuel higher layoffs, rising unemployment

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: According to the data collected from CME Group's FedWatch indicator, the traders and investors are expecting a 87.3% probability where the US Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 4-4.25%, compared to their current levels of 4.25-4.5%. 

However, 12.7% of investors also believe that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5% due to ongoing uncertainties or price pressures from the effect of Trump tariffs on the nations.  

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: Vishal Goenka, Co-Founder of IndiaBonds.com, said that, following neutral to hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, the India bonds will continue their sell-off with the INR expected to weaken. 

“If Powell were to state of imminent rate cuts, it would be followed by USD weakens and will help cushion the recent pressure on INR. Action of rate cut by Fed in September will actually open the door for RBI to follow suit in face of slowing credit and economic growth,” said Goenka in a note. 

“In the medium term however - these are good levels to add duration to fixed income portfolio as we remain in a cyclical down cycle for interest rates and given the lack of transmission on recent cuts into the banking system, RBI may be inclined to cut rates again for the benefits to reach the real economy,” he said. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: The US greenback currency dropped 0.93% on Friday, 22 August 2025, after US Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell hinted that the US central bank can likely cut its key benchmark interest rates soon for the first time since its December policy announcement. 

“With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” hinted Powell for a potential rate cut in the US Fed's September policy announcement. 

According to the Bloomberg US Dollar spot index, the currency lost 0.93% and is trading at 97.705 as of 12:13 p.m. (EDT).

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his final Jackson Hole speech, hinted that the US central bank may soon lower its benchmark interest rates for the first time since December. 

The upcoming US Fed's FOMC meeting is set to happen on 16-17 September 2025, according to the official data. 

Powell also said that Fed officials could still consider delaying a rate cut to later this year if the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump somehow manage to have a pronounced effect on domestic prices. 

“There’s a lot of data between now and the September meeting so there’s no reason to upset the apple cart right now,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, in an analyst note cited by a CNN report. 

“If the next jobs or CPI reports surprise to the upside, Powell can get more hawkish without hurting his credibility. But defying the market now would create major risk if the August data comes in light,” he said. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: The US benchmark indices rallied on Friday, 22 August 2025, after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at an interest rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting. 

According to Marketwatch data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading more than 2% higher at 45,715.35 points, as of 11:31 (EDT), compared to 44,785.50 points at the previous US market close. 

The S&P 500 index was also trading 1.69% higher at 6,477.34 points, compared to 6,370.17 points, as of 11:32 a.m. (EDT), according to the market data. 

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also rallied over 2% currently trading at 21,535.24 points, compared to 21,100.31 points at the previous market close. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, said that the central bank's long-run inflation target remains consistent at 2% based on the market and the survey-based measures. 

“Measures of longer-term inflation expectations, however, as reflected in market- and survey-based measures, appear to remain well anchored and consistent with our longer-run inflation objective of 2%,” said Jerome Powell in his speech. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, in his final speech at the annual central banker's meeting at Jackson Hole, said that the indicators of labor market conditions, which involve the quits, layoffs, the ratio of vacancies to unemployment, and nominal wage growth, have ‘softened’ but ‘only modestly.’

“Other indicators of labor market conditions are also little changed or have softened only modestly, including quits, layoffs, the ratio of vacancies to unemployment, and nominal wage growth,” said Powell. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, in his speech on Friday, said that the changes in the tax, spending, and regulatory policies in the current US economy amid the challenges of higher import tariffs have created a situation of ‘significant uncertainty.’ 

“Over the longer run, changes in tax, spending, and regulatory policies may also have important implications for economic growth and productivity. There is significant uncertainty about where all of these polices will eventually settle and what their lasting effects on the economy will be,” said Powell in his Jackson Hole speech. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday said that unemployment rates in the US economy have not jumped by nearly a full percentage point outside of an economic recession. 

“The unemployment rate had increased by almost a full percentage point, a development that historically has not occurred outside of recessions,” said Powell in his speech at Jackson Hole. 

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the unemployment rate in the United States stood at 4.2% in July, according to the latest data released on 1 August 2025. 

“Employment continued to trend up in health care and in social assistance. The federal government continued to lose jobs,” said the government department. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, highlighted that the GDP growth has slowed down in the first half of 2025 to 1.2%, compared to their 2.5% growth levels in 2024. 

Powell attributed this slowdown to the slowdown in consumer spending in the US economy, which occurred against the backdrop of high uncertainty around the nation over tariffs. 

“GDP growth has slowed notably in the first half of this year to a pace of 1.2%, roughly half the 2.5% pace in 2024. The decline in growth has largely reflected a slowdown in consumer spending. As with the labour market, some of the slowing in GDP likely reflects slower growth of supply or potential output,” said Powell in his speech. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve's Chairman, Jerome Powell in his Jackson Hole speech said that while the US labour market appears to be in balance the downside risks to employment are rising. 

If the risks materialise in the economy, then there appears to be chances of ‘sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment’ in the nation. 

“Overall, while the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment,” said Powell in his speech. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted that the slowdown in the US employment has been ‘much larger than assessed’ one month ago. 

The data showed that the payroll job growth slowed down to 35,000 per month, compared to 168,000 per month in 2024. 

“The July employment report released earlier this month showed that payroll job growth slowed to an average pace of only 35,000 per month over the past three months, down from 168,000 per month during 2024. This slowdown is much larger than assessed just a month ago, as the earlier figures for May and June were revised down substantially,” said Powell. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: In his speech at Jackson Hole, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell flagged that upward pressure on prices arising from the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump is possible. 

He also said that this is a risk that the US Fed needs to assess and manage. 

“It is also possible, however, that the upward pressure on prices from tariffs could spur a more lasting inflation dynamic, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed,” said Powell in his speech. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, in his address at Jackson Hole said that the Trump tariffs will continue to work its way through the supply chains in the US and if the rates continue to evolve, it can potentially prolong the interest rate adjustment process. 

“It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks. Moreover, tariff rates continue to evolve, potentially prolonging the adjustment process,” he said. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: The US dollar dropped on Friday after the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a possible rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting amid inflation risks, but stopped short of committing to cutting interest rates. 

According to the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, the US greenback was down 0.57% trading at 98.054 as of 10:13 a.m. (EDT). 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, said that the effects of the Trump tariffs on consumer prices are now visible and the Fed expects it to accumulate over the coming months with heightened uncertainty in the economy. 

“The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible. We expect those effects to accumulate over the coming months with high uncertainty about both timing and amounts,” said Jerome Powell in his speech. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the shifting balance of risks may warrant an adjustment in the Federal Reserve's policy stance for the US economy. He also highlighted that there are downside risks to employment rising in the national economy. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, at his last address of the annual Jackson Hole meeting, said that the inflation in the US economy will rise, but at a slower pace. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: All eyes of the world are now on the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as he is moments away from his eighth annual address at the Jackson Hole meeting at the US central bank's organised economic symposium. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: The benchmark indices on Wall Street opened higher on Friday, 22 August 2025, as US market investors awaited and shifted their focus to Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole at 10 a.m. (EDT). 

At 9:30 a.m. (EDT), The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.37% to open at 44,952.88 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.23% to open at 6,384.59 points​, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite opened 0.19% higher at 21,139.826 points on Friday. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, is likely to tread carefully with his policy decisions on the key benchmark rates, as there are chances of price pressures arising from the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on other world nations, reported the news agency Reuters. 

The weak July hiring data, combined with the big downward revisions to hiring in May and June, are fueling the hopes of a coming reduction in the borrowing costs in the US economy, as per the report. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: Given the current complex situation, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may not provide clear signals about the next policy move in what will be his final address as the central bank's Chairman, with his term ending in May 2026. 

Wall Street is expecting a 25 bps rate cut in September as the risk of an economic slowdown in the US increases. However, inflation risks are also prevailing in the current market. 

“On Friday in Jackson Hole, Chair Powell is likely to keep his cards close to his vest, emphasise that the Fed cares very much about their dual mandate and explain that they are data dependent and will need to see the jobs report and the two inflation reports before they can make a determination whether or not to cut interest rates on 17 September,” Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management said. 

Jerome Powell Speech LIVE: US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, is set to address the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, 22 August 2025 at Wyoming, United States. His speech is scheduled to start at 10 a.m. (EDT) on Friday. 

For people tuning in from India, you can watch Powell's speech today at 7:30 p.m. (IST) on US Federal Reserve's YouTube channel (link here), or follow our blog for the live updates of the event.