plinky [he/him]

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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: October 8th, 2022

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  • their offensive on kiev was a punking move, them fumbling kharkov (and odessa, but there are complications there) resulted in this precise situation we are in.

    i mean we are observing roughly same situation for 2 years running: ukraine recruits 15-25k a month, 10k escapes, 15k goes to frontlines and dies, and this shit goes on. Now, how to decisively break that situation aside from chewing through all the aforementioned 4 million men (~2.5-3.2 million remaining) 15k in a month, with running your own casualties up?

    you either break stream of men, stream of explosives/fuel/parts or central command. each of the routes, i think, is viable (aside from 2nd without air superiority) for russia. ukraine cannot recruit those men if their congress thingy is a smoking crater, or if their police stations are.

    russia can’t foment riots cause ukrainian nazis and cops will just shoot them, russia doesn’t shoot down starlink satellites, doesn’t strike at ministry of defense, even perfomatively. deeply unserious people, and that’s a dangerous thing to be.

    so just chewing through all male population, on the (losing) bet that 800 million west won’t outproduce them in hardware amount on a decade horizon? because to do otherwise would be warcrimes? or more likely explanation that they are compromised by porkies







  • striking datacenters and police stations is a lesser moral crime (don’t know about definitions) than striking electricity generation, because datacenter is not necessary.

    © that they are in the war of attrition, and ukraine military recruitment, by lots of evidence, is quite forceful. now then, if you were to stop this supply of fresh men, the military collapse would happen rather quickly. for now it’s in steady-state equilibrium, and the restricting factor is only the amount of military capable men (~4-6 million), so unless something changes in the relationships of those men to the police/suppressive apparatus they will, unhappily, go kill russians and get killed back. Thus putting this war on the 10 year timeline, which one would think is suboptimal. The numbers for police/military recruitment floating around are 100-150k men, hated by populace and removing them would rather expiate the whole process, not to mention additional issues like gang proliferation.