• 3 Posts
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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • I’ve lived most of my life in Alberta, in both rural and urban centers.

    It’s actually a pretty long story, politically, to understand how we went from Klien to Smith.

    The short version is that the old conservatives stalled in direction after achieving the goal of eliminating all provincial debt.

    They (the party) finally found a purpose, independently (and predating) Trump, of simply using Ottawa as a foil. For everything.

    I genuinely believe Smith’s US podcasts likening PP to Trump were designed to HURT PP. A Conservative federal government would be a political disaster provincially. They have no plan. They have no playbook. They ONLY have the “stand up to liberal Ottawa” drum to bang, and they lose that if the liberals aren’t in power anymore.

    It isn’t HARD to find Albertans that say they want to separate. But, they’re not anywhere NEAR common enough that a referendum could ever actually find a majority in favour. It’s not anywhere near as popular of an idea as Quebec separation in the 90s.

    And OF the Albertans that want to separate, they’re envisioning a country of our own, not becoming a US state. And, as foolish as a notion that it is, I think a good number of supporters recognize the reality that they could end up getting annexed by the US.

    Trump’s behaviour on the world stage overall hurts the proposition of Albertan separation. There is a reason pro-separation organizers are trying to distance themselves from Trump. It’s a liability to thier goals. If there was no other measure than that to evaluate what separatist Albertans about Trump statistically (always will be individuals otherwise), that should be enough to answer that.

    Are conservative Albertans that far gone? Considering Albertan conservatives as a contiguous block is nonsense to start with.

    The vast majority of Albertans would self identify as “conservative” (small “c”), and yet 1000 flipped votes in the last election would have put (ANOTHER) NDP government in place. A great number of Albertan small “c” conservatives don’t vote conservative provincially because they just refuse to acknowledge the overton window shift. Smith (or Kenny) isn’t offering anything but “blame Ottawa”. It’s BARELY enough to get a slim majority. It’s not meaningfully compelling on the grand scale.

    Speaking of Overton window shifts, Carney and Harper from a policy perspective are pretty damned similar.

    Will Alberta separate? No. Simply, no. Regardless of what interference Trump brings.




  • I agree with the ultimate goal (getting Canadian support, or at the very least Canadian silence).

    I disagree about how it could possibly achieve those ends.

    A weak Canada becomes little more than a US puppet. Full stop. Based on proximity, relative cultural similarities, and trade dependence, that’s the inevitable result. Nothing China could ever do could alter that outcome. A weakened Canada folds into the US in global matters. If that happens, China has lost before the game even begins.

    It’s a strict prerequisite that Canada be able to absorb the reprocussions of breaking ranks with the USA if you want Canada to break ranks with the USA. A stable, economically diversified Canada CAN. Otherwise it CAN’T.

    So “can they” is the first hurdle for China. The second is “will they”. That’s where this is all playing out. Over the last… I dunno, 4 years, they’ve been working on the “will they” by getting cozy with politicians.

    Right now, they’re at significant risk of backsliding from a “will they” situation back to a “can they” situation.

    The USA has a much shorter path. They don’t have to compete for “will they (side with USA)” if they can merely make it so that “can they (break ranks)” becomes unfeasible based on economic and political turmoil.


  • It’s bizarre because the scales have really tipped.

    3 years ago, China wanted to directly interfere with Canada for the purpose of stacking the government to be more “Pro-China”, and that’s an active threat for sure. The USA just wanted favorable trade conditions and general support on the world stage.

    Fast forward to now, the USA is actively trying to destabilize and divide Canada. They want a weaker nation. Seed dissert. Makes the country easier to push around. China… still obviously wants Canada to be more “Pro-China”, but for Canada to be what they want… they still want a strong Canada. A strong Canada could be a vocal counterbalance. One in disarray can not.

    So, while it’s true that both countries are actively threatening Canada, their idealized vision for a Canada that can be exploited are basically polar opposites. A strong Canada willing to break ranks w/ the USA, vs a fractured weakened country thar can’t afford to.



  • Oh, don’t worry about that. The inflated egos are distributed across all the musicians too. It takes a special kind of personality to achieve that level of singular proficiency.

    I think it’s one other reason to HAVE a conductor, is to have an ultimate authority on some matters where musicians egos get involved.

    In many (most?) compositions, there are going to be some banger little licks in many different sections. It honestly kinda sucks sometimes when you’ve got one… but you gotta hold it back because it’s still just a supporting component. To you, as the musician… you might fall in love with it, wanna push it, take the opportunity to shine and generate some goosebumps. And, obviously, since you’re God’s gift to the world, you SHOULD. The composer was WRONG to hit you with a mp. Maybe the composer’s French Horns couldn’t lead with it, but they never envisioned your talent.

    The trumpets shoot you a look to calm down? Fuck 'em. They always get the spotlight.

    Having a structure with an ego to rule all egos helps (does NOT eliminate) these kinds of things.


  • At the highest levels of proficiency, knowing “when to play” doesn’t rreeaallyy require a conductor.

    An orchestra of professionals mutates into this crazy combined organism. A hive mind, with thousands of signals being generated and consumed among the members. Negotiations all over the place.

    The conductor stands in the front not just because it’s convenient, but because they’re in the best relative position to understand what the audience will ultimately hear. If I’m in percussion, positionally I’m getting a skewed take on the relative dynamics of the piccolos. As a professional, they’d have a good “gut feel”, but thier ears are simply not in the right spot to know for sure. The conductors are.

    The acoustics of a performance space are drastically different when the seats are full of meat, too.

    The conductor is acting as the source of truth and feedback for that hive mind, from a physical position which gives them the best understanding of the complete sound being produced. While professionals CAN do a very passable job of distributing that work, it’s an additional burden and with an imperfect set of inputs. Having one person set the tone and act as that authority frees up capacity on the individuals to do thier best work.