The euro as a sign of belonging

February 11, 2026

Dimitar Radev, Governor of Bulgaria central bank on adoption of Euro:

There are moments that are difficult to explain with figures, analyses, or institutional formulas. Moments in which what is heard is not a position, but an experience. Increasingly often, young, highly educated Bulgarians speak about Bulgaria’s European path with an emotion that cannot be learned or simulated – with a confidence that comes not from declarations, but from belonging.

A few weeks ago, I attended such a conversation. A Bulgarian who grew up in the Netherlands and today holds a responsible position in a European institution said, quite simply: “From a young age, I tried to convince my classmates and friends that Bulgaria is part of Europe. They did not understand me. Today, everyone understands.”

There was no pose in those words. There was calmness and clarity.

Today, the words “Welcome, Bulgaria” can be heard and seen in Frankfurt, Brussels, Luxembourg, and in many other places across Europe. Our response to our friends there is brief and clear: “Thank you, friends. We are home.”

This is not protocol. This is a feeling.

In this sense, the euro is not merely an economic decision. It is not just a currency. It is a sign of belonging – that your place is not on the periphery, but within a space of shared rules, trust, and responsibility. A sign that the effort you have made has been recognised and accepted.

The Bulgarian lev has always been more than money. Its name comes from the lion – a symbol that has accompanied Bulgarian statehood for centuries. The lev remains part of our history and of the memory of generations of Bulgarians. No one is taking it away. It simply takes its place in the story of our country – alongside the marks, francs, and liras of other European nations.

The euro does not interrupt this story. It continues it.

The Bulgarian letters, the images of the Madara Horseman, Saint Ivan of Rila, and Paisius of Hilendar on European currency state clearly: we are not abandoning who we are. We are affirming who we are.

In recent days, this choice was also acknowledged by Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew – with that calm authority that does not judge, but recognises the meaning of symbols. A moment that reflects Bulgaria’s confident presence in Europe, spiritual maturity, and respect for its own history. Not as a renunciation of identity, but as its confident presence within a broader community.

This moment does not call for exaltation. It calls for clarity. And for the calm confidence that belonging, memory, and the future can move forward together.

GOD SAVE BULGARIA

This is what is written on the newest European coins. And that says enough.

Because Bulgaria is Europe. And Europe is Bulgaria.

Pen is mightier than sword…

February 11, 2026

In 1839, English author Edward Bulwer-Lytton wrote the famous lines: Pen is mightier than sword.

Every now and then, these words come true when books/articles are shown to be more effective than the most advanced weapons.

What better and more ironical way to see these words ringing true than today’s India.

India’s former head of Army Staff Mr Mohan Narvane has fought many a battles and won many gallantry awards. However, he would never have realised how his pen will prove to be mightier than all the modern weapons (swords) he has seen/used all his life. His memoir has been caught in a political storm and he has suddenly become a household name.

Even Bulwer-Lytton would be amazed to note the ironies in this case.

Why the arts market is not like other markets?

February 11, 2026

Roshan Ghadamian of Institute for Regenerative Systems Architecture in this paper points why there is opactity in arts’ markets:

The global art market is one of the oldest and most valuable asset markets, yet it lacks the institutional features typically required for market coherence: standardised asset representation, public transaction records, aggregate price discovery, and persistent inventory accounting. This absence is commonly attributed to the subjective nature of artistic value, cultural norms of exclusivity, or resistance to quantification. This paper argues instead that the art market’s opacity reflects a deeper architectural absence: the lack of a shared market constitution capable of jointly representing supply, demand, provenance, and transaction history.

Drawing on a comparative analysis of mature markets in finance, real estate, and commodities, the paper shows that platform-level innovations-including digital marketplaces, social commerce, and provenance ledgers-fail not because of insufficient adoption or technology, but because platforms cannot substitute for missing institutional layers.

The art market is thus characterised as a pre-institutional market: one that operates through bilateral exchange and narrative valuation in the absence of a coordinating market architecture. By reframing opacity as structurally stable rather than culturally incidental, this paper extends architectural theories of market design into cultural and symbolic domains, and illustrates how market failure persists even under conditions of technological abundance.

How Federal Reserve’s decentralised structure produced new ideas on banking policy

February 11, 2026

Residential Segregation and Unequal Access to Local Public Services in India: Evidence from 1.5m Neighborhoods

February 10, 2026

Sam Asher, Kritarth Jha, Paul Novosad, Anjali Adukia and Brandon Tan analyse residential segregation in this NBER paper :

The long goodbye of the History of Economic Thought course in liberal arts colleges in the US

February 10, 2026

In 2001, Mark Blaug wrote a paper titled: No History of Ideas, Please, We’re Economists. He pointed how History of Economic Thought is held in low esteem amidst economists and economics curriculums.

Twenty five years later, Humberto Barreto of Depauw University’s research shows how little things have changed. The course History of Economic Thought is disappearing from undergraduate curriculums:

Economists of a certain age will remember a world in which the history of economic thought (HET) was alive and flourishing. Today, that is not the case. One little-noticed consequence of the elimination of HET from graduate programs in the United States is that the HET course is an endangered species at the undergraduate level. It is not, however, extinct. This paper offers a brief history of HET as a course and explores the extent of the diminution in HET courses in the undergraduate liberal arts college curriculum in the United States. Roughly 40% of 146 schools have a HET course in their catalog, but only 20% actively teach the course. I predict a continued decline in the near future, but HET will not completely disappear. An Excel workbook with all results, HETUndergradLA2025.xlsm, is available at dub.sh/HETdata.

 

Do Research Universities Recession-Proof Their Regions? Evidence from State Flagship College Towns

February 10, 2026

Robert Calvert and Adam Scavette in Philadelphia paper:

Using synthetic differences-in-differences models, we study whether U.S. counties containing state flagship universities experienced resiliency via lower unemployment rates during the past three U.S. recessions.

We find an insignificant effect for the 2001 recession and a large resiliency effect for the 2008-2009 recession. However, counties with flagship universities faced higher unemployment rates during the 2020 recession, and were therefore less resilient to the Covid-19 recession than other counties. These results support the hypothesis that stable consumption demand for non-tradables drives resiliency, which was absent during the 2020 recession when most university campuses were closed to students due to Covid-19 restrictions.

Book Review: The Precarious Migrant Worker and Precarious: The Lives of Migrant Workers

February 10, 2026

Book Review
Panos Theodoropoulos. 2025. The Precarious Migrant Worker: The Socialization of Precarity. Polity Press. E-Book ISBN: 978-1-509-56500-9. Pages 224.  Price $20. June.
&
Marcello Di Cintio. 2025. Precarious: The Lives of Migrant Workers. Biblioasis. E-Book ISBN: 9781771966603. Pages 342. Price $24.95 CAD. September.

By Annavajhula J C Bose, PhD
Former (Economics) Professor, SRCC, DU

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Asian Immigration to the United States in Historical Perspective

February 9, 2026

Hannah Postel in recent Journal of Economic Perspectives:

Keynes’s General Theory, 90 years on

February 9, 2026

John Maynard Keynes’s book ‘ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” was published in February 1936.

In Feb-2026, the book marks its 90th nniversary.

My piece in Financial Express reflecting on the 90th annoiversary of how a book changed and divided the world of economics.

A Decomposition of Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Reduction

February 6, 2026

Benjamin Eyal, Dave Na, and Arsenios Skaperdas decompose the reduction of Federal Reserve balance sheet in this Fed paper:

Since the Global Financial Crisis, central banks have used the size and composition of their balance sheets to influence financial conditions and economic activity when policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound. A common measure of the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is the System Open Market Account (SOMA) securities holdings expressed as a share of nominal gross domestic product (NGDP).

In this note, we use this measure to focus on the recent reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet and decompose that reduction into three components: inflation, real GDP growth, and active reductions in securities holdings. Comparing the balance sheet reduction episode of 2022-2025 with the 2014-2019 period, we find that the active component—reductions in securities holdings—has played a significantly larger role. We find that this shift is consistent with changes in FOMC policy communications following the pandemic, which in turn reflect a policy response to higher inflation and lower unemployment than during the prior episode.

A prayer for cricket to rise above the politics

February 5, 2026

Andrew Fidel Fernando prays for cricket to rise above politics.

The men’s T20 World Cup is cricket’s biggest party. It is the pinnacle event that showcases the broadest array of teams – from Europe, the Antipodes, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas. The guest list had been finalised. The caterers were locked in. The band was booked.

But oh. In the neighbourhood hosting the party, dysfunction is spilling over. Pakistan had refused to play in India, in return for India having refused to play in Pakistan last year. Bangladesh have since exited the tournament for different reasons. Now, most recently, Pakistan have announced they will not play their group match against India even in Colombo. These are tornadoes that have been whipped up in the political world and then sent in cricket’s direction. What this means for the tournament is that as the guests are arriving, there is obvious discomfort. To cut this tension, you’d need a chainsaw.

This is not the first time that countries have refused to play in world competitons. Starting from 1996 when Australia and West Indies refused to play in war-torn Sri Lanka to 2025 when India refused to play in Champions trophy hosted by Pakistan, there is a long history.

He is hoping that the players rise above the political din and revive the spirit of the sport.

Though one can argue that it is too late for any sanity to return.

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Frenemies at the gates: Principal Trading Firms vs Banks

February 4, 2026
Rebecca Jackson of Bank of England speaks on the rise of specialist electronic markets and liquidity providers. She calls them Principal Trading Firms  and how they are providing opportunities and competition to traditional players such as banks:
Rebecca Jackson’s keynote speech focuses on a changing market landscape, shaped by rapid advances in new technologies and the growing importance of specialist electronic market makers and liquidity providers, known as Principal Trading Firms. These specialist players create valuable business opportunities for banks as well as providing new competition – they are banks’ frenemies. The PRA welcomes innovations where banks’ risk management and controls keep pace.

Geopolitical risk: a database of general and bilateral indices

February 4, 2026

Irma Alonso-Alvarez, Ekaterina Bukina, Marina Diakonova, Nino Khitarishvili, Javier J. Pérez and Pedro Piqueras in this Bank of Spain paper:

This paper presents a comprehensive database of geopolitical risk (GPR) indices for 34 countries, constructed using a standardized textual analysis methodology applied to national news sources. Building on the framework introduced in Alonso-Alvarez et al. (2025), we calculate both general and bilateral GPR indices that reflect the intensity and origin of geopolitical tensions as perceived in domestic media narratives.

The indices are derived from a dictionary-based approach applied to press articles accessed via the Factiva platform, with queries translated into 15 languages to ensure linguistic and cultural relevance.

Bilateral indices focus on four key regions – Russia, China, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and the Western Bloc – capturing how each country perceives external geopolitical threats. The resulting high-frequency dataset is validated through statistical robustness checks and narrative analysis of index peaks.

Our work contributes to the literature by offering a scalable, globally representative tool for analyzing geopolitical risk, complementing existing measurements such as the Caldara-Lacoviello GPR index and enabling new empirical applications in macroeconomics, finance and international relations.

New research in Industrial Organisation: A summary

February 4, 2026

Liran Einav summarises recent research in industrial organisation in the NBER Reporter:

Researchers in the Industrial Organization (IO) program study consumer and firm behavior, competition, innovation, and government regulation. This report begins with a brief summary of general developments in the last four decades in the range and focus of program members’ research, then discusses specific examples of recent work.

When the program was launched in the early 1990s, two developments had profoundly shaped IO research. One was the development of game-theoretic models of strategic behavior by firms with market power, summarized in Jean Tirole’s classic textbook.1 The initial wave of research in this vein was focused on applying new insights from economic theory; empirical applications came later. Then came the development of econometric methods to estimate demand and supply parameters in imperfectly competitive markets. Founding program members including Tim Bresnahan, Ariel Pakes, and Rob Porter played a key role in advancing this work.2

Underlying both approaches was the idea that individual industries are sufficiently distinct and industry details sufficiently important that researchers need to focus on specific markets and industries in order to test particular hypotheses about consumer or firm behavior, or to estimate models that could be used for counterfactual analysis, such as analysis of a merger or regulatory change.

There were, to be sure, some points of overlap with neighboring fields. A notable example was the role that industrial organization economists played in the activities of the NBER’s Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship program, where the research agenda embraced the estimation of plant-level costs and productivity and the effects of firm and market characteristics on R&D spending and the rate of innovation. 

The last two decades have witnessed two broad trends in expanding the scope of program members’ research. One concerns topics: while studies of traditional IO questions around antitrust and competition policy have continued to be a key defining area of inquiry for the field, there has been rapid growth of research by NBER IO scholars on sectors such as healthcare,3 education,4 financial markets,5 media,6 and transportation.7 This type of topical expansion is now colloquially termed “IO+.”

The second trend is more methodological. The empirical work in the 1990s relied heavily on insights from game theory and naturally emphasized structural modeling of demand and supply. This ran somewhat counter to the trend in other applied microeconomic fields at the time, which highlighted natural experiments and causal inference. In the last two decades, we have seen some convergence between empirical IO and other fields of applied microeconomics.  Work in other fields is increasingly using “IO-style” econometric modeling, while IO papers increasingly combine (within and across papers) causal inference methods that motivate and complement the subsequent theory-based econometric models.

Business Concentration around the World: 1900-2020

February 4, 2026

Budget Speech 2026-27: No mention of air pollution!

February 3, 2026

The Economic Survey for 2025-26 did not mention the word air pollution.

The Finance Minister’s Speech presenting the Budget 2026-27 follows the Economic Survey and skips mentioning air pollution/air quality as well. However, we are told the budget allocations have increased to tackle pollution. But then these amounts are quite paltry given the problems we are facing.

The obsession with Viksit Bharat (Developed India) in 2047 and not be bothered about Viksit Bhartiya (Indians) is as bizarre as it can get. It is as if Viksit Bharat will happen without Viksit Bhartiya. To imagine the Finance Minster not even mentioning air pollution and Parliament not debating air quality (despite being in Delhi!), speaks volumes about our priorities.

A Teacher Writes to Students Series (62): Hustle Culture

February 3, 2026

A Teacher Writes to Students Series (62):  Hustle Culture
Annavajhula J C Bose, PhD
Former Economics Professor, SRCC, DU

Hustle culture represents the typical capitalist mindset that equates success with constant activity and effort leading to decimation of personal well-being, healthy work-life balance and community support.

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Epstein files and the architecture of invisible influence

February 3, 2026

Even tough Epsein died in 2019, his ghost lingers and haunts the world.

The world is still coming to grips with shocking reveleations of Epstein files.  What is staggering is how he had access to most world leaders and who’s who, and how all these guys hobnobbed to  be with him. And now they are all behaving as if they did not know what was happening.

The truth is this is that these networks have existed for a long time. We just pretend to be ignorant and think it does not matter. Epstein’s crimes were well known by 2008 but still he remained influential amidst the big and mighty.

P. Ananth Kumar on the architecture of this invisible influence in the Madras Courier :

Jeffrey Epstein’s emails, released by the U.S. Department of Justice, illuminate how influence often operates far from formal institutions. They depict a man who wielded no official authority, yet exercised power through access—by convening dinners, arranging travel, and introducing the powerful to one another.

Over time, these small acts formed durable networks that spanned politics, business, and diplomacy. The correspondence shows how relationships endured even after Epstein’s 2008 conviction, revealing the resilience of informal elite circles.

This is a story of how private spaces, social ambiguity, and quiet facilitation shape decision-making in a globalised world. Epstein did not create this system; he exploited its blind spots, exposing how much power flows through channels beyond public accountability.

Humanity never learn from history and yet keeps saying why waste time teaching history.  The society also constantly values those who are rich and powerful rather than being content and simple. It is a vicious circle which humanity keeps getting into.

A.I. and our economic future

February 3, 2026

Prof Charles Jones on what AI means for our economic future:


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