oliveoil [none/use name]

  • 4 Posts
  • 392 Comments
Joined 2 months ago
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Cake day: January 7th, 2026

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  • One point is that Iran has had more than 24 hours warning here.

    One thing to note is that US claims to have surprised Iran with the 12 day war, but everyone in the Iranian diaspora knew it was bound to happen 6 months beforehand. I think that Iranian propaganda leaning into the perfidy and “surprise” is to gloss over the fact that a significant number of Iranian defenses were disabled during the first 48 hours + with them seemingly re-enabled following that.

    Suspected cyber attack. Videos of ground forces using anti-tank missiles against Iran’s best air defenses on the ground. Complete Israeli supremacy with no Iranian response for two days.

    Leaning into US manipulation to run cover for their own failures in defense.

    After the first two days, there were reports of people on the ground burning trees and tires to simulate fake air strikes for Israeli psyops.

    US has significantly more SEAD capabilities than Israel, and so they seem to want to repeat the playbook of the 12 day war. I’m guessing they want to expand that 48 hour window to 2 weeks, because given their narrative last time - they wanted a full 2 week window to fulfil whatever their strategy was.

    So long as they have control of the air, launching a missile response will be difficult. When that window closes. Iran will start punishing.

    Laugh a little, cry a lot.


  • Good post Marmite.

    It’s funny how this entire operation is contingent on 12 high-tech F-22’s that they can barely maintain, or in this case - deploy.

    But with this many fighter jets, and so few people stationed on the ground - it’s clear that all of the Millennium Challenge warnings are a moot point.

    However, history has shown again and again that shock and awe strategies only unify a population. Hitler tried it against the Brits, and dozens of other examples of why you need actual boots on the ground.

    This type of strategy has been done again and again by vile, aggressive, and incompetent military leaders for a few centuries now - and it never works out for them.

    I expect 4 days to 2 weeks of air bombing. Some missile bases destroyed. A lot of footage of destruction à-la Iraq: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=m8KimNtB9HI&pp=ygUSaXJhcSBzaG9jayBhbmQgYXdl

    I expect them to go after Iran’s counter-insurgency operational abilities and to use those insurgents as their boots on the ground.

    We’ll see lot of propaganda about how it’s all over. A lot of pain and dooming over in Hexbear.

    And then the humiliation of the west begins. At which point I’ll be considered an optimistic idiot, and people from other federated instances will say - look at how delusional these tankies are.