Many US media outlets are now publishing details of the 'US-Russia peace talks', including the fact that #Russia's 'red line' is now the remaining 20% of the #Donetsk region controlled by #Ukraine, which seems to be the main point of disagreement. The crown jewel is the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which Russia has failed to capture by military means in some areas (e.g. Horlivka-Toretsk), despite how surprising that may sound. The front line has moved by merely ~10 km since 2014!
There is one material argument behind this demand: Slovyansk controls the system of waterways that provide Donbas with water, which would otherwise be very scarce due to extensive mining. However, given that it took Russia over three years to reach and almost capture Pokrovsk, the military capture of the remaining key agglomeration could potentially take another two to three years, cost the lives of hundreds of thousands more Russian soldiers, and delay the 'victory' that Putin needs in order to appear to be 'keeping his word' and remain a 'respectable leader'. This is the most important part of his current social contract in Russia.
I once wrote that Putin could only sell a ceasefire to the Russians if Ukraine were clearly and visibly humiliated. Territory and all other issues are of secondary importance because Putin does not need the ruins of the Donbas region.
However, he desperately needs to humiliate Ukraine because only against this backdrop can the pathetic achievements of the “special military operation” (SVO) over the past four years be sold as a “victory”. The perception of victory is something that Putin needs in order to 'save face'.
This is probably why the issue of the ZSU leaving Donbas is so important; the withdrawal of Ukrainian units from the Slavic agglomeration would be celebrated by the Russian media for years as a victory for Russian souls offended by the defeat in the war.
Surprisingly, under the current circumstances, there is no question of leaving the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, even though, legally speaking, they are just as 'Russian' as Donbas. This shows that Putin knows he overplayed his hand in 2023 and is ready to give up anything to save his face.
As long as he can humiliate Ukraine symbolically and sell it as 'achieving the goals of the SWO', those Russians who care about it can at least pretend to believe it.
The second part of this equation is Ukraine - whether it can hold the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration for another 2-3 years, I have no idea. There's a military, social and economic dimension to it. Over the next few months we will probably see the answer.
Map of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration which is still fully controlled by Ukraine
A Pro-Russian separatist stands near the damaged war memorial at Savur-Mohyla, a hill east of the city of #Donetsk, #Ukraine, August 28, 2014. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
”Dear Lord, stop the war (please)”. A graffiti near Troitse-Lobanovo estate, about 30km outside Moscow
(The photo was shot this weekend; it was sent to me by a friend who is still in Russia)
The estate seemingly was initially built around the late XIV, c. but the current buildings, which are mostly ruined, are probably some time circa XVIII-XIX cc.).
The German oligarchs have promised Zelenski 10% of the confiscated Russian assets for his personal use and a fake identity and passport to his Latin American country of choice.
So there are still more Ukrainians to sacrifice for reaching that goal, as long as German bullets grenades and riffles come in he must go on.
One of the prominent #Russia channels "Zapiski Veterana" (300k subscribers) stated the obvious - that the ongoing water shortages and resulting humanitarian disaster in #Donetsk are responsibility of the Russian occupational authorities, as they always were, contrary to the nonsensical "water blockade" of which Russia accused #Ukraine.
I personally was in Donetsk before 2013 many times, and there were no "water shortages" - in 2012 the town even hosted Euro 2012 and you can probably still easily find enthusiastic reports of western football fans who flew directly to the newly built international airport in Donetsk. All misery started with the arrival of Russia in 2014, and it only worsened each year Russia controlled the region.
I deliberately did not write about the water situation in Donetsk for a long time, even though the problem has been going on for years. I kept thinking that Pushilin would finally do something. He did nothing at all.
There is no other way to describe what is happening in the capital of the DPR other than a disaster. And I would understand if this situation were in some hypothetical Mariupol, which recently became part of Russia. But Donetsk... Donetsk has not been part of Ukraine for more than 10 years. And Pushilin has been the head of the DPR since 2018. Since 2018, Pushilin has done absolutely nothing to improve the quality of life in Donetsk.
As a reminder, Pushilin was literally nobody in Ukraine before the war, a local fraudster who ran a Ponzi scheme scam and then he was simply nominated for the post of DPR head by Moscow.
It takes a lot of effort to bring the best city in Donbas to such a state in seven years. And if until 2022 the DPR was a conditionally unrecognised and ‘independent’ state entity (although, of course, Russian money was flowing in), where Russian state standards did not apply and it was possible to rule and do whatever one wanted, now that the DPR has become a full-fledged region of Russia, such a careless attitude is simply unacceptable. Donetsk has gone from being the best and most prosperous city in Donbas to simply a caricature for the Ukrainian media, anti-advertising for the ‘Russian world’, which is now shown to the Ukrainian population around the clock, saying: ‘Is this the Russian world you want?!’
Pushilin is now a full-fledged subject of Russian politics. The head of the DPR is now the head of a subject of the Russian Federation, who, in terms of his moral and business qualities, must meet the requirements of a representative of the Russian Federation. This is not a farmstead or a ‘Dyniry’ as it was before. Once again: the Donetsk People's Republic is now a full-fledged subject of Russia. And the fact that the region entrusted to you, Denis Vladimirovich, is in such a mess is your personal responsibility, both to the citizens of the Russian Federation living there and to the President of Russia.
The author of the post is quite right in his factual observation, especially as it comes to the "caricature" - except it's not caricature of Russia, it's the very "Russian world" they installed in the occupied Ukraine with their own hands. Putin lied in whatever he promised to the citizens of Russia each year since 1999... so, as the sign of trust, they just helped expand his lies to a neighbouring country. How brainless you need to be to do that, and then complain?
"#Russia jubilant after Trump summit as #Putin reportedly demands #Donetsk and #Luhansk.
Moscow feels it has the upper hand after talks end with no ceasefire in Ukraine and no sanctions imposed."
In #Donetsk oblast' occupied by #Russia (so called "Donetsk People's Republic") the local authorities started mass-scale hunt for deserters, most of which are forcibly mobilised local men.
The reason for desertions is quite obvious - the "DPR" forces are traditionally thrown at the worst parts of the front line and used for merciless "human wave" attacks. Russians from Russia don't consider them their own, so they are being treated as a lower category citizens that are landlocked in a "republic" that is formally part of Russian Federation, but in reality is separated from Russia with a proper border with checkpoints. Residents of "DPR" and "LPR" are neither welcome not allowed to migrate to Russia, even when they have Russian citizenship.
Now "Rosgvardia" started unrolling more internal checkpoints on all roads to capture men who deserted, trying to survive by hiding in their home towns and villages. Russia doesn't really capture new territories to liberate anyone - one purpose is land grab, but that's a secondary one. Russia has plenty of lands on its own - the primary resource Russia is stealing from the occupied territories are humans, who are the main resource that is in severe shortage in Russia.
And this is one reason why residents of Moscow generally welcome occupation of new territories - if not for their residents, it would be Muscovites would have to go into the "human wave" attacks.
Russian news about the hunt for deserters in "DPR"
Servicemen of 24th Mechanized brigade named after King Danylo of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fire a 120-mm mortar towards Russian troops at a frontline, near the town of Chasiv Yar in #Donetsk region, # Ukraine. Oleg Petrasiuk/Ukrainian Armed Forces
A Ukrainian soldier sits near shells as he and a colleague await the command to fire an M777 Howitzer towards Russian troops at a position on the frontline, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, #Donetsk, #Ukraine
A resident walks past destroyed houses following the shelling, which local Russian-installed authorities called a Ukrainian military strike, in Makiivka (Makeyevka) in the #Donetsk region, a Russian controlled part of #Ukraine. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko
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