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Cake day: February 6th, 2024

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  • if two people disagree on a conclusion then either they disagree on the reasoning or the premises.

    I don’t think that’s an accurate summary. In Aumann’s agreement theorem, the different agents share a common prior distribution but are given access to different sources of information about the random quantity under examination. The surprising part is that they agree on the posterior probability provided that their conclusions (not their sources) are common knowledge.