[Written on 2021-08-25 but unable to to finish due to increased ME/CFS impairment. Publishing 2021-09-16 just to have what's done out there, despite still missing most content on some topics.]

Previous Covid blog posts: Wave 1 - March/April 2020: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3; Wave 2 - Jan 2021: Part 4; Wave 3 - July/August 2021: Part 5, Part 6.

[Fig.1 data.gov.uk] Current (2021-08-25) UK state of Covid dashboard. (We have heave among the best health information reporting in the world!) Cases and hospitalisations continue to climb at a high level, respectively 25x and 11x the numbers of this time last year [Prof Pagel Twitter]. Despite it being mid-summer, usually the easiest time for our health service. 1st dose percentage recently took a small step backwards, with new eligibility of 16-18s (but little provision yet available, I believe).

As I worried in my Covid Part 4 "2021-02-11 point (2)", UK government's pandemic mitigation measures are being stripped away, now that our death rate is greatly diminished by vaccinations. Thankfully, these largely stayed a month or too longer than I expected. So the upsurge has been gradual, since Stage 3 lifting in May, with no further uptick on "Freedom Day" itself (19th July). I analysed the lack of uptick at the end of my part 5 post in sections (I) and (J).

This post follows on from my Part 5 Covid blog, which enumerated the problems with, and causes of, UK's apparently reckless re-opening. In the last section (I), I'd been examining the apparent downturn in cases, around the time of our "freedom day". It now looks clear that we were really seeing the end of the football peak (with a big pinch of school-kid case isolation, then finishing for summer) - a bonus peak on top of an overall continuing (slow) upwards trend in cases. Which has plateaued for now, probably (until football gatherings and school start up again, within the month!):

[Fig.1 - GovUK] Official stats show cases steady at ~25k/day, hospital admissions ~700/day.

The official R number, for rate of Covid spread, today is 0.8 to 1.1. I think this is averaged over a time period including some of the brief case drop. So, it looks like R = 1 would be a better approximation of our momentary trajectory. Which is pretty bad, given the high incidence of disease. But fairly ideal for us to take a look and see how far we are from herd immunity (section J, directly below). We're definitely a good way off, because we're at an effective R of ~1, while the population is still being relatively cautious, still a lot of mask use, summer holidays and no football, etc. So we should be able to work out how much of a reduction is coming from these NPIs (non-pharmacological interventions, i.e. stuff other than vaccines).

Actual calculations and results in point (6).

Update 2021-08-14: Summary of the APPG conference call that triggered "herd immunity mythical" headlines, catching the general public up roughly, to what I've concluded here. See (B) below.

Update 2021-08-19: new and clarified information on vaccine effectiveness, section (C).

Here we are again. In the alarming but familiar situation where the UK (or rather England's) covid-19 cases are soaring while government fails to act appropriately. The situation that kicked off my first posts, before the March 2020 peak: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3. Then for the even worst autumn/winter wave: Part 4... 

[Twitter]

... Except that this time, the death rate has been greatly diminished by vaccination: case-fatality rate down roughly 12-fold, from ~2% to 0.16% [Twitter]. For the older, vaccinated portion of society, at least. And as expected, it looks like high deaths really were the only thing holding our government back from pushing through herd immunity by full infection, with a reckless abandon that I feel is a crime against humanity.

Here's a somewhat concise list of reasons why their particular interpretation of "living with Covid" is so dangerous and unnecessary, how it's been enabled (A to D) and a possible upside (E). Followed by a brief overall look at the current pandemic situation in other parts of the world (F) and personal anecdotes (G). Finally, some nice graphs further down (H) that explorer some of the topics in more detail. {Update 2021-07-30: why did cases suddenly start to fall, just before re-opening (I) & (J)?}.

Updates index:

•  2021-01-10 - UK situational report - 12 reasons...
  
•  2021-01-16 - Reevaluating - lockdown 3 takes effect.
•  2021-01-18 - Surging inequalities.
•  2021-01-20 - (Minor additions.)
•  2021-01-29 - Contagion dynamics vs testing.
•  2021-02-11 - Vaccination & Immunity Outlook.

 

 ► 2021-01-10 Sitrep - 12 reasons things will get much worst!:

In the UK, we're back in a situation a lot like March, when our (so called) government was disastrously inactive in the face of rapid exponential growth of coronavirus infections. They seem to have given up on containing the spread again.

The scariness of inaction spurred me to write my first Covid-19 mega-blog post, initially about exponential transmission. Following up with part 2 and part 3. I looked at all aspects of the Covid situation (and beyond) in the Anglosphere and the world in general. I'll try to revisit some of those topics and my predictions, below, as and when I'm able.

Thankfully there was enough public alarm to instigate action from the bottom up. The much talk about the nature of exponential graphs, thereafter. But it seems we've largely been overlooking the multiplicative nature of case growth again! In different ways, perhaps.

Out for our 3rd weekly shop.

Exploring the pandemic situation, continuing from:
• "Covid-19: a deadly wake-up call to exponential growth?"
• "Covid-19 (Part 2) - Daily Updates"

Index:

• 2020-04-18 Sat - Misplaced Animosity
• 2020-04-19 Sun - Divided States
• 2020-04-20 Mon - Food Shortages?
• 2020-04-21 Tue - Through the floor!
• 2020-04-22 Wed - Perspective
• 2020-04-23 Thur - More Science Sumaries


► 2020-04-18 - Misplaced Animosity:

[Daily Mail]

• I've been somewhat horrified at the general appetite (seen in posts from of some of my old Facebook friends) for martial law and/or capital punishment, effectively. I.e. marking anyone taking an unnecessary walk in a park as "not for treatment", in the case they ever get infected. Punishment fits the crime grim poetry.

That last coming from one of the most caring individuals I know, in response (I believe) to a litany of pictures like this one (right), from the [Daily Mail]. Flattened, zoomed in perspectives making everyone look far closer together. Seemingly just trying to stir up resentment and outrage, for viewership and quite possibly to undermine public solidarity and help usher in crony capitalist friendly authoritarianism (for the papers owners).


Above is closer to the real story of public spaces - drone footage of Birmingham city centre on a sunny Saturday afternoon. It's usually heaving with crowds, but is now deserted! [Twitter Video]


It also looks like over 90% of rail travel is gone, 80% of London bus trips and 65% of other road travel too (right). [BBC]


78% of people self isolating, as of the beginning of April [Ipsos MORI]. Pretty impressive adherence to measures (and an unprecedented economic change).

Despite all this, UK public is still being focused on the rare black sheep amongst us, and bad optics in occasional photos and videos. It's our 10'000 year (or so) old memetic predilection for social scandal, coupled with a cognitive incomprehension for relative scale and rarity.

SARS-COV-2 - lipid bilayer with ACE2 binding s protein spikes.

... Continuing on from my previous mega-post: "Covid-19: a deadly wake-up call to exponential growth?".

It seems the future is currently flying at us on a daily basis, so I'm still finding it hard not to hyper-focus on events and feel I may as well use this blog for catharsis.

I've ended up spending quite a lot of time talking about the antics of politicians, which I'd normal tell others to ignore, but in this instance the situation is so heavily dependant upon exactly what measures are announced, when and how the public reacts.

2020-04-08 Wed - Unintended Consequences (Advertising apocalypse, BoJo in ICU, etc)
2020-04-10 Fri - Unequal impact (racial, economic and geographic inequities)
2020-04-12 Sat - Dissecting government decision making, cats & dogs and creativity


► 2020-03-29 - Pointing Fingers:

• The domestic coronavirus outbreak seems to have given Boris Johnson (and other incumbent leaders around the world) political invincibility. The 'rally around the flag' effect has him up at a 73% approval rating, the highest for any conservative government since such metric began in 1943 [Bloomberg].

Which makes sense during a crisis or war, generally. This certainly fits with the vibe I get when talking to most of my friends (those who aren't politically polarised already). Although I saw one post hinting that there may also have been some astroturfing, with copy-pasted supportive sentiments on social media [Twitter]. (Probably insignificant in this context.)


• That record polling was even unaffected by the announcement of his infection (and both health secretaries, etc). Which The Daily Mail has attempted to pin on the EU, via chief negotiator Michel Barnier, who was also diagnosed a while before [The New European]:


It's laughably implausible, given Barnier's not even been to the UK recently, so it would have to have passed via an intermediary politician. Prince Charles or Nadine Dorries far more likely. The very risibility of this nonsense claim is probably the reason I saw it plastered all over my Twitter time-line. Again, right wing intimations going viral, for free spread of their repulsive rhetoric. Including me posting it here, to illustrate the point...

With wall-to-wall coronovirus news now impossible to miss, I wanted to do a bit of a brain dump of my thoughts on and around this scary issue. For personal catharsis and reference, as much as to inform the few others who might read it. I think this will likely turn out to be the most significant event in my living memory, so far.😨


On the Curve: 

My perspective with this blog was very much underpinned by extropianism and the inevitability of exponential technological advances most famously expounded by Ray Kurzweil. So of course I've often been aware of how typical human thinking and expectations is unable to grasp exponential changes. E.g. how solar PV is due to come from seemingly nowhere to suddenly be providing abundant clean electricity for most of the globe.

I'm wondering if the exponential spread of the Covid-19/SARS-Cov-2 virus will be a turning point in public awareness for the power and immediate relevance of such non-linear growth rates. Certainly the initial spread appeared to follow an exponential curve [YouTube]:



China's figures now claim the rate of infection spread has peaked after their impressively agile response [Twitter thread]. Throwing up entire new hospitals in a couple weeks, switching (free!) healthcare provision and interaction to be more online, bringing in hospital staff from all over and locking down entire regions with high compliance.

It's great news, if accurate, given how much of the world's goods are supplied by China. There was much reporting (in Western media) of initial infection whistle-blowers being silenced/punished for descent against the state, perhaps frustrating potential for early containment (we don't know, and might not). But the virus was recognised pretty early and sequenced in record time. However, the heroic containment efforts [NY Times] may have only bought the rest of the world a few precious weeks to start preparing...


Epidemic Response: 

There's very good reason to be scared for a worst case scenario outbreak in the US, where testing has been abysmally lacking. Tests alone have been costing individuals thousands of dollars out of pocket and there's no protection for many workers to take sick leave (let alone as a precaution). Pretty strong incentives not to act responsibly.

Also, the Trump administration dismantled the pandemic response team, back in 2018, at the time of an Ebola outbreak [Independent, FP]. He put openly anti-science Vice President Pence in charge of the coronavirus response and Trump himself has been lying that the spread has been "stopped" [Independent].

A very similar situation in the UK, where Tory government has been defunding the NHS for a decade, purging international staff and heath workers with Brexit xenophobia and now with an untouchable majority PM Johnson is making terrifying babbling noises about the UK just "taking it on the chin" [Twitter Video] and allowing the infection to spread, effectively... 😱

The WHO's (arguably belated) declaration of a global Covid-19 pandemic, today (2020-03-11) sounds like a direct dig at these attitudes: "we were deeply concerned, both by the alarming spread and severity and by the alarming levels of inaction"! Complacency and lack of fear is arguably more scary than a little panic (although calm assertive action is the call of the day, now).