Wildy higher losses and worse than i would have suspected.

Maize Under a high-emissions scenario, our projected end-of-century maize yield losses are severe (about −40%) in the grain belt of the USA, Eastern China, Central Asia, Southern Africa and the Middle East (Fig. 2a, Extended Data Fig. 7a and Supplementary Figs. 10 and 11). Losses in South America and Central Africa are more moderate (about −15%), mitigated in part by high levels of precipitation and increasing long-run precipitation (Extended Data Fig. 3b). Impacts in Europe vary with latitude, from +10% gains in the north to −40% losses along the Mediterranean. Gains in theoretical yield potentials occur in many northern regions in which maize is not widely grown (Supplementary Fig. 7).

Soybean The spatial distribution of soybean yield impacts is similar in structure to maize, although magnitudes are accentuated (Fig. 2b, Extended Data Fig. 7b and Supplementary Figs. 10 and 11); for example, about −50% in the USA and about +20% in wet regions of Brazil under a high-emissions scenario.

Rice High-emissions rice yield impacts are mixed in India and Southeast Asia, which lead global rice production, with small gains and losses throughout these regions. This regional result is broadly consistent with earlier work1. In the remaining rice-growing regions, central estimates are generally negative, with magnitudes in Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and Central Asia exceeding −50% (Fig. 2c, Extended Data Fig. 7c and Supplementary Figs. 10 and 11).

Wheat Wheat losses are notably consistent across the main wheat-growing regions, with high-emissions yield losses of −15% to −25% in Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Africa and South America and −30% to −40% in China, Russia, the USA and Canada (Fig. 2d, Extended Data Fig. 7d and Supplementary Figs. 10 and 11). There are notable exceptions to these global patterns: wheat-growing regions of Western China exhibit both gains and losses, whereas wheat-growing regions of Northern India exhibit some of the most severe projected losses across the globe.

Cassava Cassava is projected to have uniformly negative projected impacts in nearly all regions in which it is grown at present, with the largest losses in Sub-Saharan Africa (−40% on average under a high-emissions scenario). Although cassava does not make up a large portion of global agricultural revenues, it is an important subsistence crop in low-income and middle-income countries. Thus, these yield losses may be a substantial future threat to the nutritional intake of the global poor (Fig. 2e, Extended Data Fig. 7e and Supplementary Figs. 10 and 11).

Sorghum Sorghum losses are widespread in almost all of the main regions in which it is grown at present: North America (−40%), South Asia (including India) (−10%) and Sub-Saharan Africa (−25%). Projected gains emerge in Western Europe (+28%) and Northern China (+3%) (Fig. 2f, Extended Data Fig. 7f and Supplementary Figs. 10 and 11).

still funds some coherent stuff.

Nice . I was waiting for someone to quantify this type of thing. I wonder what the maximum possible density is.

What YIELD is, is production per area figure. So like, if you jettison all these marginal failing fields, your “average” climbs. Because you’re making the denominator smaller FASTER than you’re making the numerator smaller. But production is falling!

yeah reminds me of how they claim less and less people are in poverty because some arbitrary $2.50 a day threshold while simultaneously the number of people with permanent malnutrition based stunting is increasing by hundreds of millions.

to be expected as higher latitudes get bulk of the warming compared to tropics.

I just don’t know how small farms survive in a financial sense

they dont , we’ve been in a “get big or get out” regime for decades already . Most small farms are subsidized by outside working family members , this is well documented in the usda statistics. what going to have to happen is farmers are going to have to start charging more to compensate for year to year risk but its difficult to do because competition between commodity producers is high so further farm consolidation will continue until there are so few players oligopoly like margins and coordination to higher prices becomes viable.

its mind blowing the mental/bureaucratic gymnastics humans will engage in to delude themselves . there has never been a moment we were off the rcp8.5 path but the narrative was so ubiquitous .

rates of soil carbon accumulation, though that lies outside of the scope of this article. The Kernza domestication program was launched in 2002 and has reached about 1/3 the yield of wheat in comparative trials (DeHaan et al., 2018; Cassman and Connor, 2022

1/3 the yield of current modern wheat is already at the level of preindustrial wheat yields so as a post apocalyptic crop this creates a beneficial artifact from the modern era.

people started working on this in the 1960s though most failed there were major lessons to be learned about it. It is very much the time to start building parallel institutions. the transition towns movement the FEC and FIC federation of communes people have been haphazardly lurching towards these things . worker owned and co-ops of the past and even lodge societies like the oddfellows have built humanistic social instituions that have been mostly ignored by mainstream society.

Im working on things with some other people right now. what country are you in ? how old and do you have any skills?

Money is more than banknotes and coins. If you have a bank account, you can use what’s in it to buy things, typically with a debit card. Because you can buy things with your bank account, we think of this as money even though it’s not cash. Therefore, if you borrow £100 from the bank, and it credits your account with the amount, ‘new money’ has been created. It didn’t exist until it was credited to your account. This also means as you pay off the loan, the electronic money your bank created is ‘deleted’ — it no longer exists. You haven’t got richer or poorer. You might have less money in your bank account but your debts have gone down too. So essentially, banks create money, not wealth. Banks create around 80% of money in the economy as electronic deposits in this way. In comparison, banknotes and coins only make up 3%.”

this is missing the much bigger more important macro picture right now which is we entered a fiscal dominance. Now regardless of monetary credit expansion from banks poofing money into existence, government outlays are being printed and its in a runaway . This source of inflation would run even if interest rates were 20%. in fact high interest rates are paying bond holders from printed money which is inflationary. A lot of people havent noticed this phase change. its one of the reasons golds going crazy right now, along with the dying of the dollar as reserve currency .

USA is backed itself into corner . austerity is politically unacceptable and the only path forward is inflating away nominal debt.

Im glad i planned for this because i would be epically more fucked if i hadnt.

Land prices are out of control too, used to be major regional differences but thats mostly been arbitraged out and now even places in oklahoma and arkansas are overpriced. People listing good farmland has slowed so much, they just hold it now.

https://www.lynalden.com/full-steam-ahead-all-aboard-fiscal-dominance/

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its worth it to plant species further north ahead of time get populations established so they can keep going even with human extinction. pecan trees in the pacific northwest river valleys that dont get enough heat units now will be 80 years old and bearing tons at some point when the world is much warmer. wet to dry warm to cold there are many gradients we can shuffle species in

canadian landlords salivating about raising rents on the 14 mattresses in their basement from $600 each to $1200 each

Do the jails even have enough spare capacity?

seriously doubt it , jails across the usa are pretty maxed out , they ship people around quite far distances to less occupied jails in areas that dont have as much volume.

There are no rumors of camps, or are they?

if you mean like concentration camps i haven’t heard anything like that other than the long persisting comspriacies . Ive heard they shipped all the homeless to other states but thats bullshit because they say that in every single state and they all blame other states.

the only thing ive heard thats credible is that the west coast weed industry breaking down means the influx of “wooks” and the weed money that supported them is gone so they all went back to wherever they came from. but there is still a huge deficit even accounting for that.

when i said in the previous comment " they just disperse the population to other areas or diffuse them" i meant withing the city where they just move around and normally recoalesce in encampments again which hasnt happened.

There has been some major sweeps of homeless populations after Johnson v. Grants Pass on the west coast to the point that entire villages worth of people have disappeared and i have no idea where they have gone because i was in texas when they swept them. im talking thousands of people per city just missing in multiple cities. i looked around from santacruz up to eugene oregon.

Normally when sweeps happen they just disperse the population to other areas or diffuse them , this time they are just straight up missing, nobody i talk to seems to know what happened to them. Even accounting for the known new housing things like tiny home village or parking lots car owning homeless can park it doesnt get remotely close to accounting for the people missing.

entire mini Lagos-slums and TrumpBidenville encampments taking up many acres , gone.

i dont see them dispersed in sufficient numbers either , maybe 1/10th.

I have no real answer to this mystery. its sus af tho, are they all in jail?

its people unable to grip with harsh realities or its people trying to deceive the world for their own short term interests

we live with scientifically illterate and psycopathic elites

looks like we reached peak house size back in 2015.

affordability has declined since 2011 with the pandemic inflation ruining the last metros affordability

that overshoot is just a symptom of a much deeper problem - large-scale domination by narcissistic/psychopathic individuals.

definitely possible to get overshoot without psychopathic individuals

Has anyone told reddit collapse we’ve moved here yet?