Strong Belief is Ordinary

Episteme 21 (3):773-793 (2024)
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Abstract

In an influential recent paper, Hawthorne, Rothschild, and Spectre (“HRS”) argue that belief is weak. More precisely: they argue that the referent of believe in ordinary language is much weaker than epistemologists usually suppose; that one needs very little evidence to be entitled to believe a proposition in this sense; and that the referent of believe in ordinary language just is the ordinary concept of belief. I argue here to the contrary. HRS identify two alleged tests of weakness – the neg-raising and weak upper bounds tests, as I call them – which they claim believe and think pass. But I identify several other expressions in ordinary English for attributing belief, all of which fail both tests. Therefore, even if HRS are correct that believe and think refer to a weak attitude, it does not follow that the ordinary concept of belief is weak. I conclude by raising some problems for the accounts of belief as guessing, building on HRS's arguments, due to Kevin Dorst, Matt Mandelkern, and Ben Holguín.

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Roger Clarke
Queen's University, Belfast

Citations of this work

Guessing and its Limits.Helena Fang - 2026 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 112 (3):563-577.
The Many Meanings of Belief.Zachary Ferguson - 2025 - Synthese 206 (258):1-16.
Memory belief is weak.Changsheng Lai - 2023 - Ratio 36 (3):204-214.
Belief-that, Belief-in, and the Unity of Belief.Jessica Moss - forthcoming - The Philosophical Quarterly.

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References found in this work

The Stability of Belief: How Rational Belief Coheres with Probability.Hannes Leitgeb - 2017 - Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.
Lockeans Maximize Expected Accuracy.Kevin Dorst - 2019 - Mind 128 (509):175-211.
Thinking, Guessing, and Believing.Ben Holguin - 2022 - Philosophers' Imprint 22 (1):1-34.
Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic & Amos Tversky - 1985 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 36 (3):331-340.

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