Canada’s population growth slows to historic lows as temporary residents decline

Canada’s population stood at an estimated 41.65 million on July 1, 2025, rising by just 47,098 people, or 0.1%, over the previous quarter. According to Statistics Canada, this is the lowest second-quarter growth rate since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when border closures nearly halted migration. Excluding that year, it is the slowest pace for a second quarter since comparable records began in 1946.

The slowdown follows a period of rapid immigration-driven growth, with the country adding more than 3% to its population in 2023–24. By comparison, Canada’s population grew by 272,032 (+0.7%) in the second quarter of 2024 and by 321,791 (+0.8%) in the same period of 2023.

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Drop in Non-Permanent Residents Drives the Slowdown

The main driver of the weaker numbers was a sharp fall in non-permanent residents. From April to June 2025, their numbers declined by 58,719, marking the third consecutive quarterly drop. The total non-permanent resident population fell to 3.02 million, or 7.3% of the population, down from a peak of 7.6% in October 2024.


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This drop is one of the largest since records began in 1971, second only to the pandemic-related decline in 2020. The reduction was led by study permit holders (-32,025) and work permit holders (-19,637). At the same time, the number of asylum claimants and protected persons increased by 17,901, continuing a 14-quarter streak of growth. Their numbers reached a record 497,443, with the largest gains in Ontario and Quebec.

Immigration Still the Main Source of Growth

Despite the slowdown, international migration remained the largest contributor to population gains, accounting for 71.5% of growth in the second quarter. Canada admitted 103,507 new permanent immigrants, a figure aligned with the government’s 2025–27 Immigration Levels Plan. While lower than second-quarter intakes of 2022, 2023, and 2024, it was among the highest in decades.

Natural increase — the difference between births and deaths — added 13,404 people. Seasonal trends meant more deaths and fewer births in the colder months, but spring and summer lifted numbers slightly above the first quarter’s gain of 30,038.

Year-on-Year Growth Weakens

From July 2024 to July 2025, Canada’s population expanded by 389,324 people (+0.9%), sharply lower than the 1.21 million (+3.0%) added a year earlier. Much of the slowdown came after the federal government introduced policies in 2024 to reduce temporary migration.

Between October 2024 and June 2025 alone, Canada saw a net loss of 124,915 non-permanent residents, with the steepest drop among international students.

Regional Shifts: PEI Leads, BC Shrinks

Population growth varied across provinces. Prince Edward Island (+0.8%) led the country, followed by Alberta (+0.4%). British Columbia, however, recorded a rare quarterly decline of 2,154 people. Gains from immigration and natural increase in B.C. were not enough to offset the exodus of non-permanent residents and losses from net emigration.

Interprovincial migration trends also reshaped demographics. Alberta posted a net gain of 6,187 people, continuing its 12-quarter streak, while Ontario saw the largest net loss (-6,154) for the 15th quarter in a row.

Population Aging Resumes

With fewer temporary residents — who are typically younger — the median age of Canadians rose to 40.6 years in mid-2025 from 40.3 a year earlier. The share of seniors continued to climb, with 19.5% of Canadians aged 65 and older. For the first time, one in four people in Newfoundland and Labrador was in this age bracket, giving the province the oldest demographic profile in the country.

By comparison, Canada’s aging rate remains below peers such as Japan, where nearly 30% of the population is over 65, and Italy at 24.6%.

Economic and Policy Implications

The stalled growth has immediate implications for the economy. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that weaker population growth, combined with a soft labor market, would weigh on household spending — one of the few supports in an economy that contracted in the previous quarter.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government will set new immigration targets on November 1, the first under his leadership. Carney has pledged to bring immigration to “sustainable levels” while ensuring the country has enough skilled workers to address housing and infrastructure shortages.

Canada, like many advanced economies, depends heavily on immigration to replace retiring workers and sustain its tax base. The government now faces the challenge of balancing public concerns over migration with the need to fill labor gaps and support long-term growth.