Okay so here’s the thing, if Anthropic develops a plugin or tool that can, not only optimize workflow, but literally reduce costs via automation, it will change a lot of things. How might this play out? For the sake of argument, let’s say this tool has ability to sift and organize data (which is partly the idea floating around tech articles as of late). Let’s say it can crunch numbers, create graphics, spreadsheets, and mock presentations. Because of this, you will no longer need to hire data analysts that paid for overpriced degrees, expecting hefty salaries.
Now you simply tap into the SAAS aka Software as a Service pipeline. Out comes Anthropic with this one tool. On top of that is their already established LLM via Claude.ai which I may say is literally the best one I’ve used so far. (But I could be biased). Anyway, combining both the new plugin with Claude, now you’ve got your one man crew with tools that can do the work of 50+ graduates.
No more bloated payroll, or payroll taxes, just more deductions, and write-offs for equipment or subscriptions. This elevates profit margins. Now other companies see this. They Jump on the bandwagon by either subscribing to the front runner in Anthropic or they try to clone the process on their own, not having the same resources or turnaround times, and low costs.
Another scenario is a company that makes one of the most important components to carry out these tasks by way of the plugin. Which implies the plugin can’t be used without it, (chips, pcb’s, graphics processing units apparently the brain of computing on caffeine. You also have the central processing units, the brain of computing on 8 hrs of sleep). Now you get the possibility of mergers and or acquisitions, or partnerships. Eventually Anthropic becomes the low cost producer.
They eat up a majority market share. One or two companies give them a little competition. From there the rest of tech begins realizing how dumb it is keep 50+ data analysts. The risks are payroll. This means executive compensation, bonus packages, and restricted stock units.
This also includes pension plans that pay out for the life of the employee, given they may have retired during a bull market or worse, during an economic downturn or recession. Not to to mention that this is when costs should be minimized. Now you begin to see major tech layoffs (as is usually the case during downturns, and typical market cycles). This occurs to the point where markets fall, tech drags, opening up undervalued stocks, everyone panics, some understand who the top players are. Anthropic if not in IPO territory yet, enjoys the residual benefits of being the go-to company.
Software developers have to pivot. Now you get a rise in small tech firms. They try to copy what they learned from their previous bosses. Many fail. Markets recover at some point. Anthropic goes public whenever it becomes shaky, or most convenient because they keep burning through capex to stay ahead of the game. Whoever their biggest supplier is in terms of parts, infrastructure, and components, gets to enjoy a few years or earnings beats, eps growth, and more retail taking on more margin because they realize who benefits the most from this one tool.
Somewhere in the middle, the drawdown will reveal conviction and deployment of capital has to commence. However this is all anecdotal, and could be wrong. There is also the geopolitical, commodity cycles, GHG’s from mining minerals, and international markets that exacerbate global economic outcomes for the U.S. economy throughout this process. In other words, bidding/trade wars, or deals. Economies of scale, supply chain, and countries who do tech better.
