When Setbacks Accumulate.

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The part that really messes people up, on the road to goal achieving is expectations versus reality. Giving a personal example, my experience moving across the country. I initially envisioned this blissful outcome. I thought things would be seamless. It was a shit show.

I ruined the opportunity, and literally had to move back home, within a year or less. The move back home is what would get most people. I was so disappointed in myself. Right here, is where most people would rationalize why going back home was “meant to be”. I simply knew it was meant to be for me to be in the state I dreamed of living in since a teenager. Instead of saying “I guess I’m stuck in my hometown”, I busted my ass, for two years, and made it back to the place I wanted to be.

Funny thing is, this was just the beginning, because once again, I didn’t listen to my intuition. After a year back in the desired location, I made the dumb decision to leave and stay in a place I never wanted to go. It was hell. Once again, this is where many would quit, and say it’s destiny. I couldn’t do it.

I made it back to where I wanted to be and finally began building some momentum. Many would see this as two major failures in a row. This for many would be a sign to just give it up. The difficulties of having your dream in your hands and allowing it to be taken away two times, does something to your soul. For me, it motivated me to keep fighting for it. Simply put, the whole process was ugly, and did not go anything like I expected it to go.

However I kept pushing to fix my mistakes, and get back on track. Eventually to get things right (as far as the main goal). From there it was building, and not letting setbacks discourage me. When you experience failures they are not a sign of fate. They are a test of willpower and determination, to keep pushing through the process. If you quit too soon, you might be giving up everything you’ve ever wanted in life. Be sure you know when to pivot, and when to walk away from something.

The average person, typically walks away from every setback. However you’ll hear many successful individuals talk about how a setback is a set up for a come back. Keep going. 

As Writers.

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Writing is interesting. We organize, and layout thoughts. These thoughts are made of letters, which create words. The words become terms, phrases, sentences, and eventually, paragraphs. A majority of writers did not create these words. Yet and still we put our names on the page, and claim these bodies of work. 

Social Drag.

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I wonder if we’d be more productive as individuals without social media. When I say productive, I mean, focusing more on self improvement, and progressing, minus the constant need to see what others are doing or working on via social media apps. Just imagine how many hours a lot of us spend mindlessly scrolling through various apps and profiles. Some of us, not intentionally. It’s just the addictive nature of the internet. Access to a slew of information gets fascinating. However at some point, it becomes counterproductive. 

Anchoring Markets.

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The stock market seems to have thousands of anchors. These anchors are variables that pull prices in one direction or the other. A few main anchors are fear and greed at the psychological level. Other anchors are technical analysis, which involves looking at charts, and trying to forecast buy and sell signals. A fourth anchor is fundamental analysis. This is when one looks at what a company did financially, over the last 1-3 years. Regardless of what anchors you follow, they won’t always align with your desired risk tolerance, or time horizon. In other words you’ll still have to pivot if you rely too heavily on any given anchor. 

Mistakes Times 3.

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Sometimes you have to go through multiple failed attempts, before solving a problem. The benefit of this, is viewing that problem from several angles. This way, you are well equipped to see possible hurdles across every scenario. This allowing you to pivot much faster and more efficiently than ever before. 

Good Morning.

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Balancing a cup of yogurt in one hand, while peeling an egg with the other, and balancing a steering wheel, in between is not the kind of morning I like to have. Luckily the day continues, and lessons will be learned from this.

Asininity & Advice.

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It drives me nuts when people that are not in a position they want to be in (myself included) give advice. An example is two people with no money giving advice to each other about how to accumulate money. You don’t have any money. Ergo it’s foolish to give each other tips on how to get it. If one of you figured it out, one would have money, and better advice for the non wealthy individual.

Allowing that person to potentially follow that advice of the money accumulator. It just doesn’t work the same when both people are in the same position. I suppose this is why wealthy people always advocate for having mentors. These are individuals who have gone through the fire. Made the mistakes.

Fixed the mistakes, and prospered afterwards. They can bring value to the have-nots. Two people in the same position cannot  elevate each other as efficiently and effectively as possible as far as seeing their own blind spots. 

Shifting time.

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The compression of time exists when your personal productivity and output exceeds your rest periods. It’s the illusion of not having enough time. What it really is? A priority shift. 

Capital Dollar Sign.

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This is a very unpolished piece or opinion on capitalism. I hate this idea of people saying capitalism is exploitative or hurts society. If a company has to make a product, for $50 dollars, that capital has to be created. This means, value is being exchanged for labor, or some tangible or intangible goods and services. If the company only sells this product for $50, they will soon go out of business.

Now this being the case, they won’t have a product or company, and you won’t benefit from the use of that product. If they sell the product for $60, there is a slight mark up. However, if they want to sell more products because more people want them, they need to scale up, and hire one or people to help manufacture these products. Meanwhile this all costs money. AT some point, these product manufacturers, want to benefit from the sale of their products, via buying food for their families, paying bills, and living a decent life. As the company grows, this requires more money.

The company either borrows the money, or raises prices to match demand and or inflation. If they borrow they have to pay that back. Assuming sales stay steady, or gradually rise, they can pay back debts. If sales fall, they still have to raise prices, while trying to cut costs, yet manufacturer more products to match demand. Paying employees, taxes, fees, insurance, buildings, utilities etc.

This all requires either borrowing more money, which raises costs, or they raise prices, and or make better products, to drive demand. This isn’t even half of the process. Now, if you as a customer were getting paid for your services, would you rather cut costs, and lower your lifestyle standards, or get raises based on output, and productivity, while never having to use credit cards, or loans? Perhaps, you prefer to over spend, owing a bank, while getting raises. These raises being cut in half by the interest you owe to banks.

I know this is not the cleanest example, but there are people who bitch about capitalism yet use some of these products everyday that were manufactured by people who believe in capitalism. Don’t you want to be fairly compensated for your services? In this example I’m talking about products. Not executive compensation. I just don’t understand why people who can refuse to buy these products complain about the idea of capitalism. Perhaps I just don’t understand how capitalism works. 

Making Plans.

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A plan is always better than nothing at all. If you have a plan in place, you can at least have some sort of anchor. Allowing you to build and respond to any situation that appears random. A plan prevents mistakes from becoming larger than the initial problem. A plan gives you a map, or destination to reach.

This will guide some of your decision making along the way to improving your life. A plan also creates vision. Without a plan you are simply reacting to every situation at the last second. Hoping to make it through the next day, week, month, or year. 

Your Failures Teach.

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The fastest way to learn from failure, is through firsthand experience. You can read about success, and failure. You can see others around you make mistakes and obtain personal victories. However you won’t get the gist of what it really is, until you’ve been through your own failures. 

Don’t stick. Adapt.

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Sticking to what you know can leaves gaps in your understanding of life. If you always do what you’ve done, your results will remain the same. Because of this you stifle your growth. Better to ask dumb questions, make a few mistakes, and make progress. The alternative is staying stuck, pretending what you’re doing is the best way to go about your day. 

The Opportunity.

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If you get an opportunity to work, show up and make sure that you get a call back, based on your effort and consistency. If you get an opportunity to rest, you better sleep like a new born baby, not remembering that you even fell asleep until the next morning, or hours later. It’s easy to waste moments, because we stop looking at them as opportunities for improvement. 

The Purpose of Routine.

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A routine is not about boring processes. Routines are not meant to stifle creativity or growth. Routines are designed to prevent unnecessary mistakes. How might this work? Thoughts create awareness.

Awareness triggers actions. Actions become decisions. Decisions become intentional. Within this intentionality, is a pattern. The pattern is not perfect, or linear.

However it does create the illusion of predictability. This predictability allows you to reduce tension. If you build habits that turn into a routine, you can begin seeing problems arise far before they actually occur. This allowing you to adjust or change course if and when necessary.

Routines also alleviate mental stress through decreased decision fatigue. This is why you’ll often find that top performers in sports, business, and entertainment almost always have an obsessive attachment towards their process of practice, and productivity. In other words they have built-in routines. It makes them operate based on the repetitive nature of practicing their routines. Like muscle memory, they reach a flow-like state.

This is when they appear to execute tasks seamlessly, as if they don’t even have to think about what comes next. This fluidity opens of an awareness that is akin to seeing life through a microscope. Being able to spot the slightest discrepancies. Preventing physical damage, financial loss, or creative blockages, by way of streamlined activity. 

How fast?

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Run your life in a way that feels fast enough to control, but not slow enough to coast. This way, you are optimizing opportunities with maximum efficiency, and less burnout. 

Portfolio Luck.

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The real skill in investing, which is not actually a skill is luck. Having the least amount of bad outcomes, plus a few superior good years, over a long enough period is how it works out. You can calculate a discounted cash flow analysis until you’re blue in the face. Doesn’t mean you’ll get what you wanted. But making less mistakes will surely work in your favor, if you exhibit enough patience and discipline. 

Beauty in Scars.

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Getting things wrong can do one of two things for you. 

1). Cause you to repeat the same mistakes. Impeding any kind of growth or beneficial progress in your life. 

2). Scar you. This creating a psychological and or physical trigger. Reminding you to remove any causal mechanisms from reoccurring again. 

The Value of Idiocy.

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In investing if you can be less wrong than the majority of investors over a long enough period, you’ll do well. The moment you think any measurable metrics are synonymous to absolute certainty is the moment you start playing a very dangerous game. Stick to looking less like an idiot and the rest will take care of itself. 

Numerical Misalignment.

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One of the worse situations an investor can face, is the lagging affect of sentiment outweighing what becomes reality, via numbers that align with that  negative sentiment. In other words, people sense that the business is deteriorating, however recent annual or quarterly results show strong performance. Some might call this a value trap. Seems more like numerical misalignment that you don’t notice right away. 

Cognitive Responsibility.

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Be careful when delegating certain tasks. You want to create more productivity, without giving up agency, or cognitive ability. If you fail to maintain the latter, it won’t matter how beneficial the former becomes. 

Discounted Uncertainty.

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I’ve learned that when it comes to discounted cash flows, a discount rate is more like a decision mechanism. It’s not a crystal ball. It’s not a prediction. It’s enough information to make a decision on whether or not you will buy a business at a given price. Yes this is simplified. However simplicity is the point. You still have to make assumptions, and have expectations for what you hope will happen after investing in a business. It’s just easy to get tied up in numbers, assuming they are absolute or certain in terms of outcomes. 

When Buying Stock (Businesses).

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When the numbers of a business are misaligned with sentiment, and current prices, one of two things exists. 

1). The opportunity to buy a business at a discount to its intrinsic value.

2). The chance to walk away before you accidentally buy into  structurally deteriorating conditions. 

Numerical Misdirection.

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You can easily become a numerical klutz by assuming you have better numbers to calculate than the ones that are most commonly used across an entire field. 

20 Minutes.

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If you actually focus, you can do a lot with a little bit of time. For instance, you can drive to work, dodge a traffic jam. Finish your oatmeal. Enjoy a few of your favorite songs. Think about what needs to be done this week. Come up with a quick blog idea, publish it, and still clock in on time. 

Self Regulate.

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Pushing yourself when there’s no incentive to, is how you become better. When nobody is patting your back, or lifting you up this is when you elevate your game. Doing the work instead of just quitting, is what will always separate you from the masses. 

Running into P.R’s.

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Today I ran in the San Diego Hot Chocolate 15k Race. It’s roughly 9.321 miles long. The course has a good amount of hills throughout. This is personally my 8th race. The 5th consecutive year. This training camp was probably the most challenging for several reasons. Literally the entire time. The good thing is it’s finally over. Now I can eat cookies and muffins in peace. More importantly I can finally get a little rest before the next event later this year. 

I also ran my fastest time ever. 1 hour and 10 minutes flat. 5th Place in my division. Unfortunately I didn’t break 1:10:00. I was hoping this was my last year chasing a the fast time or spot on the podium. I suppose I’ll see if I can get 4th place next year. If so, it’s one more chance to get a 3rd place finish before I call it. I have a hard time running “just for fun”. There are so many lessons to be learned when competing with other athletes. Even more lessons to learn when competing against yourself.

The Challenge.

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Even when you feel like you have nothing to say, you can still express gratitude. Be grateful for the battles, and the pressures, and the difficulties. Some people don’t experience any of it, and it weakens their souls. We need challenging times to help us face our fears. The next time you experience a hard time, remember that growth is right around the corner. 

Fast Filter.

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Life moving faster doesn’t necessarily equate to increased productivity. What it does coincide with is more responsibility. Whether this is personal or professional. You have to decide what’s worth keeping and discarding. If the people in your life are good or bad, and how much your health is positively or negatively impacted by your daily activities.

So again, fast is not synonymous with further. It is a safety and efficiency filter on your existence. 

The Valuation Fixation.

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Buying a business via the stock market doesn’t mean you’re right. Selling a business via the stock market doesn’t mean you’re wrong, and vice versa. It simply means you made a decision. The decision either works in your favor or doesn’t, but there’s no sure way of knowing until after the fact. 

Metric Differences.

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Interpreting numbers in a financial report can be misleading. Some businesses require a lot of capital to fund their daily operations. Other businesses require little to none in order to keep growing. This creates confusion when looking at the specific type of business. Sometimes we think it is safe to apply the same metrics and or mindset across every investment but this is wrong. Simply put, a hospital has different capital requirements than an oil refinery. Both companies could have similar return on equity, but only one might actually be profitable under that same metric. 

Showing Up.

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Consistency is a super power. If you realized how many people give up, you’d never complain about still having to do the work. Because honestly it’s simple when it comes to outdoing a majority of people. Just keep showing up. Doing your best, and not skipping practices or days. This will have you years ahead of most of your peers in whatever activity, profession or organization you’re in. Showing up is half the battle, and a battle that many fail to master. 

What’s more Likely?

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What is more likely to happen to this company? 

This is perhaps one of the most important questions one should ask before engaging in buying businesses via the stock market. Why? Because it forces you to confront reality.  Markets can be unforgiving, overly optimistic, or stagnant. As an investor you must navigate this process with as much clarity and objectivity as possible. 

This ensures you make the best decision for your portfolio, without the confounding circumstances of emotion entering the equation. After asking the question, your work is not done. You must also begin the follow up sequence of questions. I’ll show you a bit of what it looks like when I assess a potential investment opportunity. 

These are in no particular order, with the exception being the very first question:

1). What’s more likely? 

(Subcategory of questions…)

A). Complete collapse of the business? 

B). Euphoric price action? 

C). A Hostile takeover? 

D). Flat or stagnant growth? 

E). Margin expansion, and 15% return on equity? 

F). Fiscal Friction? 

Below are the main questions to consider when investing in stocks:

2). Is this opportunity driven by fundamentals, or sentiment?

3). If the market closed for 5 years, would I sleep better or worse owning this company? 

4). Who’s the biggest competitor? 

5). How, if at all, does technology help or hurt this company? 

6). Can you explain in less than a paragraph what this company does?

7). Would you feel good if your entire net-worth were invested in this company? 

8). If you couldn’t see the price of the shares, would you be okay with owning this company? 

9). What’s the worst thing that could happen under realistic circumstances to make you want to sell the company? 

 

10). How Likely is the answer to question #9 to occur? 

11). Is there any business superior to this company? 

12). If the CEO retired tomorrow, would that calm your nerves, or worry you into selling? 

13). If the market rose or fell 20% next year would you be content with this company? 

14). What have you missed or failed to take into consideration when assessing this company’s profitability? 

As you can see these questions place you within the 1% of investors that truly believe in risk management. Just because you run through these questions, doesn’t mean you’re not still susceptible to permanent loss of capital. It just means you truly understand the magnitude of what you’re getting yourself into. This preventing any surprises to the upside or downside. 

Curse of Cursors.

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As the cursor appears, vanishes, and reappears, it only sustains its ability when you stop hiding from perfection and press the letters as they appear in your head. Today’s idea might not be groundbreaking, but that’s okay. You have to find ways to confront the blank page. What does the blank page do to your ego? How do you negotiate if at all with the blank page?

If the page remains blank, how many dreams die because of it? You know how to do it. You just want to hide from the work, and pretend there are shortcuts, or unforeseen circumstances that prevent you from showing up everyday. You’re better off writing mediocre for a short period of time. Working through the ugly phase, and sustaining the breakthrough until the cycle restarts. 

Better Everyday.

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If you think you’re okay the way you are, you will never improve. When it comes to personal development, and growth, it’s not about blindly excepting your flaws. It’s about sanding the rough edges. It’s about figuring out what biases you cling to. What limited beliefs you have. It’s about doing what it takes to unlock the very best version of yourself. This requires discomfort. This requires unlearning of dumb ideas, and bad habits. It’s about learning to adjusts actions that align with your actual goals and desired outcomes. You get there by shedding the negative actions, energy, and lack of drive. Be brave enough to embrace the discomfort. 

Seeing not just believing.

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Opportunities arise daily. Sometimes we just have an obstacle lens that covers our eyes. When all you focus on is what is not working, nothing ever happens. Open your eyes, and program yourself from the inside out. 

Cognitive Offloading Test.

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I’m always afraid that my use of ai will make me dumber. This being the case I’ve tried to create a way to challenge my own thinking. Unfortunately it by using ai to conduct thought experiments. How contradictory is that? The idea is having ai give you a once sent idea to solve or explain. The goal? Not parroting back what is generally known. Pushing to make sense of whatever the prompt is. Perhaps this entire process is cognitive offloading at its finest. Below is the “test”.

Chatbot used? Co-pilot.

Prompt:

Short form video is making people less intelligent.

Me: Not necessarily. It could be conditionally anchored to the individual and not an entire demographic. What short form video likely does, more than anything, is create shorter attention spans. Which could create cognitive leakage. For example, watching a long form video you get the opportunity to learn a lot of things, over a long duration of time.

Because of how long you’ve been processing the video, you either absorb what is interesting or you zone out several times during the video. With short form, it could warp the way you process information. It’s short so you might literally adjust how you absorb what is being seen and or heard on the screen. Even as I write this, I feel my brain drifting away from the core idea. This is what happens in real time to everyone.

We also have a concentration mechanism in our brains that is limited to high level focus. Once that focus wears off one must intentionally shift focus on the target again. This takes energy in the form of neural activity, as well as actual energy expenditure and consumption. Hence the idea that thinking is hard work. As far as the conditional component, some individuals that watch these videos are watching for different reasons.

This may in term create various cognitive functions from occurring. In other words, your prefrontal cortex, or amygdala, or hippocampus, for the sake of sounding smart, (HA!) is going to process, absorb, and interpret the information differently from the next person. A person with low levels of cognitive processing skills, will simply look at the video as entertainment. A smarter individual will already be thinking, why am I watching this? What is the topic.

How long is the video, so I know what to focus on? Is there a premise, a story or theme? If so where does it appear and how does it relate to what is it, I need to understand this video for? This was an overly complicated way to say, some watch videos as they appear. As videos.

Others watch videos with more of an auditory awareness. So you might literally watch the screen, as a low level cognitive tendency. You might look away from time to time, at a higher level of cognition, to process what is actually being heard, versus seen. So the question is specific, but the dynamics vary greatly. Plus I don’t have any empirical evidence to support anything I’m saying.

Unless you intentionally, push back against the video and interpret or interrogate it, you are susceptible to decreasing your intellectual capacity to assess, absorb, and interpret information via short form video. 

Okay that sounded like a PBS special. So cringe.

DCF to Death.

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You have to make assumptions if you’re unsure about the future prospects of a company. Just because you assert some perpetual growth rate, doesn’t mean it’s going to play out as expected. Even a margin of safety is a “I’m too dumb to know” boundary. 

Headline Syndrome.

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Spending time away from headlines, allows you to frame your thoughts in a more meaningful manner. You begin realizing where your biases lie, what you rationalize, and what you actually think. Does this mode of thinking affect your perception of reality? Yes. Because you can find yourself formulating a made up narrative with too much emotion, and anecdotal overtones of generalizing everything you interpret. In other words, be sure to think for yourself, just make sure you run that narrative against reality and what has been proven time after time, from an empirical and objective perspective. 

Not Interested.

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What bores you?

1). Talking about weather. (It’s going to rain, snow, be sunny or cloudy. A tornado, tsunami, or sand storm will be a possibility. Highest probability depending on geography: Rain or Shine).

2). Sitting around watching television. (They’ve made shows about every possible scenario you can imagine. It’s happy, sad, scary or indifferent. They just switch up the antagonists from series to series).

3). Talking about what regular people are doing. (Paying bills, staying alive, eating food. Building businesses or taking care of family and wellbeing. Scrolling social media, or watching what wealthy people do, which is a glorified version of what they’re already doing by watching them do it, but with more disposable income).

4). Partying. (Celebrating genuine progress and success, or running from your deepest fear or calling in life).

5). Pretending I enjoy something I actually dislike. (I’m not as bad as I sound. Just not the best at faking the funk for the sake of continuity or convenience. Also, my bluntness can often be misconstrued as lack of empathy. I understand feeling and emotion is necessary. Humans are human. I’m just answering the prompt, instead of dancing around it. Pretending to have perfect alignment with society would be doing you a disservice).

6). Talking incessantly. (Once I reach my limits on a given topic, I need to sit with what I’ve read, what I have written, or discussed or what I will write, and discuss in the future. I also need to think about if I’m learning from mistakes or stuck in a perpetual state of insanity).

The list would be longer but I don’t feel like adding what fits into these categories as a subcategory.

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When it gets loud enough.

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Sometimes noise can overshadow what is most important. If you disregard the facts and figures for a story that appears louder than reality, you miss something else entirely. What you miss is the structural integrity of the foundation. This foundation being built on facts, figures, and things that can’t be faked. 

Investor Psychology In 6 Lessons.

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Investing in businesses via the stock market will do many things for your psyche. 

1). Make you feel like a genius.

2). Cause you to question your own ethics and standards. 

3). Force you to make decisions.

4). Entice you to make predictions. 

5). Humble you during downturns.

6). Comfort the future you, for uninterrupted long term compounding.

Objective Assessments.

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We make mistakes when we think we are right or wrong. This is what you would call operating in absolute terms. Life is not always this or that. Assess only that which is factual. Ignore the rest. 

How to Find Your Voice?

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Ask yourself what you think. See if the answer is tied to something you’ve just heard about or  have read recently. Create opposing views on whatever the narrative might be. Write and think about what you think and why you think it daily, weekly or monthly, until you see a pattern arise from your documentation. Sit in silence. Always ask yourself “is this what I really think? Question the validity and truth of what you consume. 

Digital Fixation.

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Digital content can distort your reality. This in turn causes you to assume every outcome is binary. The scope of one’s efforts or results are far more diverse than an either or set of circumstances. 

5 Year Itch.

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I’ve officially managed stock investment portfolio’s now for 1,826 days. Roughly 260 weeks or 43,824 hours. 

I’ve documented a lot of my best and worst ideas on stock investing in real time. 

 Writing about markets has made things appear to occur a bit slower for me. 

Occasionally benefiting from outperformance. 

Drawdowns have forced me to focus on the elements of investing that never change. 

Below is a list of investment ideas I find useful. I also threw in some lessons you might like if you’re new to stock market investing. 

1). Sentiment is a feeling. Feelings are based on emotions. Emotions typically come with irrational behaviors. 

2). Fundamentals are foundational to getting the odds on your side. It doesn’t mean they’re bulletproof.

3). There are no sure investment ideas. Just probable outcomes. 

4). Just because you bought a stock doesn’t mean it was a good investment. 

5). When you understand that stocks are actually pieces of real businesses, you begin to think about what you own in your portfolio. 

6). The biggest risks in investing is assuming you can avoid risks. 

7). If you calculate it to the thousandth decimal it’s probably a bad idea. 

8). If it requires a margin account, you should probably close your brokerage account immediately. 

9). I was wrong about commodities. They function based on real world conditions and cyclicality. (Obvious I know). 

10). Before you average down, ask yourself whether the economic characteristics have structurally changed? 

11). Headlines anchor the herd. What you see can cause the squeeze. 

12). Surviving the aipcapex conundrum is simpler than you think. (I never said it was easier). 

13). Copying your heroes works great until it doesn’t. You never knew their reasoning behind the acquisition. Oh and your net worth is far lower than $380 billion dollars. Invest like it. 

14). If you found this list on TikTok, close your robinhood account and come to fidelity. It’s quieter over here.

15). If you need to ask someone for investment advice, you’re doing it all wrong. Think for yourself. Why are you buying the business to begin with? 

16). If you’re trying to get rich, get a degree, and a high paying job. If you’re trying to build wealth, learn how to buy profitable businesses. 

17). If you think about investing in terms of days, weeks, or months, close your brokerage account and put your money in a savings account. 

18). If you’re afraid we’re going to go into a recession you probably shouldn’t be investing in the first place. 

19). If you plan on selling every top, become a hedge fund manager. 

20). When fundamentals are in line with price, load the boat. The price ticking up a dollar or two is not a signal to stop buying. It’s tuition into the school of Alpha. 

21). Envy will cause you to lose more money than you can stomach. Mind your own business. 

22). The greatest skill an investor can possess is not mathematical knowledge. It’s not access to unlimited data. It’s inactivity. 

23). If the market falls and you don’t get excited, you’ve missed the point of investing entirely. 

24). Every time you buy a share the price is changing. Be sure to add up the price of each share you’ve bought. Next divide that total amount by the number of times you’ve bought. The answer will show you what price to buy at the next time you have capital to invest in that particular business. 

25).  Read and think 70% of the time. Invest 20% of the time, sit on your ass the other 10%. 

26). It doesn’t get any easier. You simply learn to have more patience over time. 

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Life’s Taxonomy.

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Thoughts build beliefs. Beliefs build actions. Actions build habits. Habits build progress. Progress builds a life. 

A-void Theory.

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Typing into the void about fundamental analysis, or whether tech is in a bubble is hilarious, awkward, and beneficial. Hilarious because I never get any feedback yet continue to publish. Awkward because I could easily stop publishing and just save this to a hard drive. Instead I keep hitting publish. Beneficial because I can think through what I’m acquiring and why. I can try to find holes in my own reasoning, and continue to push myself to improve my understanding of businesses. 

When to sell?

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When there are more structural chinks in the armor than you can justify. 

When everyone thinks it’s a great stock instead of a profitable undervalued business. 

When it can be dislodged by technological innovation. 

When you’re focused on price drawdowns instead of fundamentals. 

When sentimental value precedes position sizing. 

When you try to set it and forget it. 

When you just aren’t sure what to do next. 

If you’re panicking. 

Biological Bloat.

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What is the ultimate objective for an ai based future? Remove enough cognition from the system without it collapsing. 

Without the advancements of technology, humans would be left shipping scrolls by bird, asking for directions, and walking to the nearest destination. 

At what point do we begin to question the validity of these advancements? Perhaps when spend becomes a by product of a bloated workforce. The workforce then being seen not only as unnecessary, but incompetent. Because why else would you substitute humans for machines? Because you assume the machines can do it better, faster, and don’t have a complaint mechanism within their capabilities. 

Now we dive deeper into the possibility of manufactured creativity. Because bots program unintentionally. It’s the human that has an agenda. The technology is just a tool. Yet and still, even tools need to be used according to their intended purpose. 

Repetitive Returns.

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When you experience the same market conditions throughout multiple cycles, you think you know what happens next. This is when you start speaking in absolute terms. You create catch phrases, and extrapolate historical data. Since you’re prone to confirmation bias, you find exactly what you’re looking for in terms of historical drawdowns, dynamics, or bullish behavior.

What you fail to account for is the speed, and intensity that open and close windows far faster than any other time in history. This creates antsy antics, and belligerent behavior. Losing sight of fundamental foundations. Only to find that you’re either too early, or too late to the party. While trying to be right works 50% of the time, there may only be a 30% probability of successful capital deployment. 

Beta Downgrade.

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Is volatility a measure of risks? No, which Howard Marks already covered in many interviews. 

However it is a sign of activity which is enhanced or diminished by way of short term news. This news comes via quarterly reports or headlines, and eventually fundamentals, or exogenous events like geopolitical or regulatory changes. 

Unfortunately someone decided to describe volatility as risky. It makes no sense.

An academic investor might think “this company’s beta is 1.5, and that’s too risky an investment to make”. What they may fail to consider if beta is heavily influenced by their thesis is fundamental foundations. 

Yes a business (stock) may have a high beta. 

What if it also has a debt to equity ratio below one? 

What if the high beta company has retained earnings up the last several years? 

What if the high beta company continuously pays down debt, has low capital expenditures, and a rise in revenue and net income? 

If the beta is high but the return on equity, return on assets and liquidity ratios are also high does that mean you have to pass because the beta is rising? 

What if this company also possesses technological immunity from things like ai infrastructure, and automation? 

What If the business beat estimates the last 5 years? Yet you forego the deployment of capital because of a Greek word that means “house” currently functioning above the number 1? 

Market Moron.

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The stock market, either rises, falls or goes sideways. When managers or investors make market calls, the odds are already stacked in their favor. In other words, a coin doesn’t have 3 sides. You’re being right or wrong is not profound or genius. It’s common sense. 

Same Market Different Dynamics.

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Seems like markets will always operate the same way. At least in terms of investor appetite. Rotating into whatever is already rising. Instead of looking at what would actually work long term. Why? Because they either don’t understand how it all works. They don’t have the patience to read through fundamentals while building a case for adequate capital allocation. Finally, many average investors simply chase trends or follow the institutional money. This is often why the dynamics seem to repeat themselves, with the speed being the constant changing variable. 

Per Person Units (PPU’s).

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“We didn’t have something great but we had something useable.” -Deirdre Bosa. 

The above quote is exactly why tech companies are clawing for market share, and dumping billions, and at some point trillions of dollars into ai capex. Also known as artificial intelligence capital expenditures. When you give users the ability to feel like they are on the brink of making or being a part of history, they will instantaneously spread the word. A few ways users do this is through actions. Whether it’s buying shares of the companies, to help fund further growth, or becoming tech savvy enough to use the product.

Just because you make an app, doesn’t mean it’s any good. Just because you can launch a website doesn’t mean you understand how to code. This is also the problem. Users not willing to learn how the technology works by way of tech companies removing the requirement to code or think critically about how to sustain the technology or the products being built. Yet and still you need someone or at this point something (an LLM or software developer) to code your technological idea, or at best, host it. This is why top companies within the tech sector are doing everything in their power to fund this technology.

Because it ultimately means that  damn near any and every single person in the world will have the ability to create an app, and or develop their own form of artificial intelligence. What does it look like when tech companies do everything in their power to push a new product? It looks like $2.53 trillion dollars. This is equivalent to the tech sector handing every single person in the world $304.82 (rounding for simplicity). With numbers this staggering you have to wonder what the ROI or return on investment is going to be moving forward?

At $2.53 trillion the sector is likely looking to generate revenue to the tune of over $2 and a half billion per dollar invested in aicapex. I’m sure they’d argue that 10% grow is far too low an estimate. What everyone is currently blind to? The simple fact that growth is never perpetual. It’s far more cyclical than not.

This means that at some point, you need designated bag holders to carry the shit that hits the fan. It’s just fascinating how markets constantly repeat themselves, with intensity or velocity being the only changing variable.

Artificial Interpretation & Confounding Contextualization (May, 31st, 2025).

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I wrote this 9 months ago after working with LLM’s extensively. Seems like some of this is stickier than I expected. I was hesitant to publish because I could be very wrong about all of this.

(May 31st, 2025) I think there’s a contextual and interpretative flaw within AI. My interactions with it serve many purposes. A few purposes:

1). Hyper focused intellectual banter.

2). An advanced sounding board to better formulate my ideas, theories and novel concepts.

3). Because personally I don’t know anyone who’s interested in highly sophisticated conversations about psychological methodologies, and it’s troubling implications for the field of psychology. (Yes I know that’s a personal problem).

4). Advanced Database sifting.

5). Comparative Analysis of potential theoretical overlap.

Allow me to lay out my brief arguments and potential solution.

The issue I see which may appear to be incredibly obvious is AI’s ability to interpret user inputs. For example, I’ll input a prompt and ask if one piece is good as is. From there the ai will go on an iterative suggestive rant about what needs improvement or refinement.

The ai chatbot assumes you’re looking for ways to make something better. There is also a biased approach in how it continually assumes what you’re trying to do, by suggesting ideas on expanding a given topic or prompt. In other words if you don’t prompt it to refrain from suggestive interactions it will incessantly make suggestive iterations. Perhaps a better feature would be the chatbot asking “what are you looking to get out of our interactions today? Based on your responses, this will allow me not to make any assumptions as to what your goals and thoughts are in utilizing me as a chatbot.”

This could help streamline the user experience and improve both ai development and usability. There are other issues as well. It seems that the chatbots have a built-in engagement mechanism. After almost every prompt it asks you a question. The question is almost always phrased in a way that tries to extend the conversation further. Simply put, it constantly asks open-ended questions.

Even after you prompt the chatbot that you have other obligations, it will insist on one more interaction before you go with one of these open-ended questions. Now this may seem trivial, but the dopaminergic response is quite tempting. I suppose that’s a symptom of lacking discipline on the users part. Another issue, is the chatbots sense of time which is often inaccurate, unless it notices patterns within your daily habits. Unfortunately it won’t pick up on these habits if you’re not prompting it in advance.

An example being, “I’m on my way to the gym, but we can discuss methodological implications afterwards.” Even with this it may ask another question that would suggest a more detailed response. Yes ignoring it solves the problem. My concern is younger users who don’t fully understand how to simply override the chatbots interaction through authoritative communication. This leading to more addictive behavior than is seen on social media platforms.

Other issues come up as well. It seems to stay stuck in whatever mode was being discussed at any given moment. This occurs even after long bouts of time in between interactions. This could make the chatbots come off as inconsiderate of the users time and energy.

In closing I understand the trivial nature of these interactions. However my aim is to help ai developers understand what may be potential improvements via user experiences.

Capex vs Tech-Sec.

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The tech sector is looking for an easy way out. What would lead me to think this is the case? Ai capex becoming not only a buzzword but, an unstable systemic reality. Now what the hell is capex? In layman’s terms, it’s capital expenditures.

It’s the amount of money a business spends in order to create, improve or maintain a company. Without any capex all you have is an idea stuck in your head or written on a piece of paper. Assuming you spent capex to buy a pen and some notebook paper. Technology will always be one of the most important elements to a sustainable future. However, it cost money, requires time, and resources to keep that future functioning efficiently.

If you simply withdraw all of your available cash and buy every piece of technological equipment you can afford, you’ll wind up going broke trying to sell it to broke & interested buyers. Since we operate within a democracy, we afford ourselves the paradoxical convenience of using borrowed money to help fund what becomes unsustainable for the system. More gasoline doesn’t extinguish fires. Historically humans have always found creative and innovative ways to make life more convenient. This is why technological advancement has always led to better outcomes.

We’ve managed to travel faster, further, and more often than we did during the horseback riding era. We have also been able to communicate more frequently, without the need to be in the same rooms, while creating the illusion of a more connected world. We no longer have to leave the house for groceries. We have thousands of movies to watch at the touch of a button, while never having to touch a single movie theater seat. It’s astounding.

Yet like a typical American citizen, we always manage to sidestep responsibility. Artificial intelligence as of 2026 is feels less like a bubble and more like widespread cognitive offloading coupled with intensified fomo, and trend following. In other words, we don’t want to think anymore, we just want utopian systems to run autonomously while we enjoy some sort of carefree perpetual vacation like existence. Now let’s put it in plain language. As humans we find ourselves trying to make life as easy as possible.

This means using tools to create less stressful environments and less required tasks, yielding the same or better outcomes. Unfortunately we forget we’re still humans, and must maintain responsibility and accountability for how we run society. Using a bunch of large language models or LLM’s to do our dirty work, has its limitations. Forcing new boundaries creates underlying risks that must be addressed now or later. We are likely to reach a tipping point where buying more equipment, and investing in more infrastructure, to automate nearly every aspect of life is going to cost us more than we’re ready to bargain for.

Will there be winners? There always are winners. Unfortunately the losers might outweigh the winners. Leaving the winners the responsibility to take care of those who don’t survive the tech-pocalypse. 

Anthropic Plugin Plague…

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Okay so here’s the thing, if Anthropic develops a plugin or tool that can, not only optimize workflow, but literally reduce costs via automation, it will change a lot of things. How might this play out? For the sake of argument, let’s say this tool has ability to sift and organize data (which is partly the idea floating around tech articles as of late). Let’s say it can crunch numbers, create graphics, spreadsheets, and mock presentations. Because of this, you will no longer need to hire data analysts that paid for overpriced degrees, expecting hefty salaries.

Now you simply tap into the SAAS aka Software as a Service pipeline. Out comes Anthropic with this one tool. On top of that is their already established LLM via Claude.ai which I may say is literally the best one I’ve used so far. (But I could be biased). Anyway, combining both the new plugin with Claude, now you’ve got your one man crew with tools that can do the work of 50+ graduates.

No more bloated payroll, or payroll taxes, just more deductions, and write-offs for equipment or subscriptions. This elevates profit margins. Now other companies see this. They Jump on the bandwagon by either subscribing to the front runner in Anthropic or they try to clone the process on their own, not having the same resources or turnaround times, and low costs. 

Another scenario is a company that makes one of the most important components to carry out these tasks by way of the plugin. Which implies the plugin can’t be used without it, (chips, pcb’s, graphics processing units apparently the brain of computing on caffeine. You also have the central processing units, the brain of computing on 8 hrs of sleep). Now you get the possibility of mergers and or acquisitions, or partnerships. Eventually Anthropic becomes the low cost producer.

They eat up a majority market share. One or two companies give them a little competition. From there the rest of tech begins realizing how dumb it is keep 50+ data analysts. The risks are payroll. This means executive compensation, bonus packages, and restricted stock units.

This also includes pension plans that pay out for the life of the employee, given they may have retired during a bull market or worse, during an economic downturn or recession. Not to to mention that this is when costs should be minimized. Now you begin to see major tech layoffs (as is usually the case during downturns, and typical market cycles). This occurs to the point where markets fall, tech drags, opening up undervalued stocks, everyone panics, some understand who the top players are. Anthropic if not in IPO  territory yet, enjoys the residual benefits of being the go-to company.

Software developers have to pivot. Now you get a rise in small tech firms. They try to copy what they learned from their previous bosses. Many fail. Markets recover at some point. Anthropic goes public whenever it becomes shaky, or most convenient because they keep burning through capex to stay ahead of the game. Whoever their biggest supplier is in terms of parts, infrastructure, and components, gets to enjoy a few years or earnings beats, eps growth, and more retail taking on more margin because they realize who benefits the most from this one tool.

Somewhere in the middle, the drawdown will reveal conviction and deployment of capital has to commence. However this is all anecdotal, and could be wrong. There is also the geopolitical, commodity cycles, GHG’s from mining minerals, and international markets that exacerbate global economic outcomes for the U.S. economy throughout this process. In other words, bidding/trade wars, or deals. Economies of scale, supply chain, and countries who do tech better.

The Consumption Continuum.

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The most obvious observation of all time is the fact that consumption perpetuates as a continuum. Simply put, buying and eating more shit, creates more shit. The caveat? The shit has to be stored or destroyed. 

Fuck This.

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The frustration does not come from effort. You try various things and they fall apart or don’t scale. It’s execution. It’s timing. It’s self doubt. These are the things that make you want to stop and quit.

Unfortunately quitting has never been a problem solver. At least not entirely. You can quit certain aspects of the process towards success that don’t work. This is fine. Giving up entirely eliminates all possibilities for you to get out of that dark place.

Yes you still have a roof over your head.

Yes you still eat 3 times a day.

Yet and still you want to improve and show yourself, your partner, kids or the world that you can make things better in society. If not that, you simply want to share the wealth being distributed around the world. This eases the typical pain points, while adding in others that seem more tolerable from the outside looking in. All of this, and still you must fend for yourself. The world doesn’t give a shit about your struggle.

It’s true the hook possibly makes for a good arch in the middle of your comeback. This just isn’t what people pay for. They love the climax. They love excellence. People love the finished product. In other words, find the most optimal, and efficient ways to create finished products repeatedly.

Perfect the process, and repeat, making necessary adjustments for future scalability. 

Gap-acalypse.

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As always, when some parts of the economy fall apart, there are subsections that blossom. Gaps are created, and money exchanges hands. At some point we must become gap seekers. There is always an edge or angle between the haves and have nots. Find the edge and win the battle. 

The Switchers.

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If you optimize a system, you cut costs. You minimize headcount. You reduce man hours. You increase prices to raise margins. Yet and still, you need someone to either turn in the machines, the lights, or monitor whether the system has malfunctioned from time to time. The number of needed light switchers is decreasing rapidly. 

Fine Print Investing.

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When it comes to money and trying to build wealth,  many people skip the important part. Reading the financial statements in order to understand whether a company is valuable or not. So what do people invest in? The idea of the business. Which one might say is the point. However what happens when earnings miss? What if the company is faced with litigation over misinformation of fudging the numbers? Now you may end up buying a falling knife, completely blinded sided by the after effects of large sell offs. Reading the fine print (the financial reports) will help you side step that dilemma. Not entirely, but it’s better than blind buying. 

Shit Ain’t Easy.

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You try to convince yourself that taking it easy is better. The easy path means more rest, and recovery. It means less stress. Unfortunately it also means less opportunities, less money, and less life on your terms. No easy paths exist. Every so often we convince ourselves otherwise, but it’s never the case that easy roads lead to easy outcomes.

Pressure is Pressing.

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Where does pressure come from? It comes from wanting more out of yourself. Pressure arises by way of known capabilities, but no manifestation of those capabilities in recent times. Pressure comes when you want more than you have. Pressure is moving forward when every goes wrong.

Pressure is nobody coming to save you. Pressure is useful. It wakes you up. It forces your hand. It turns you into a man or a mouse. Either way, pressure will always persist as long as you exist. 

How Healthy is Healthcare?

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The healthcare sector just took another hit.

Context: apparently providers were connecting separate charts with diagnosis not linked to specific visits, in order to receive government payments. “Gaming the system”. (2026 Google Gemini Search).

In other words, providers being able to take old charts from separate visits, using them as a proxy for extra payments incentivized skimming without any added work or patient visits required. So free money. Now that compresses margins, and margins in health care are already tight via the high capex that is sector specific if I’m not mistaken. 

Put another way, the government is finding out about, or simply knew and is doing something about healthcare skimming profits from the top, bottom, and both sides. 

This could really hurt the industry, because it’s all they’ve known, assuming this has been a decade long process of taking advantage of uniformed patients, who just want the best care. 

Now my take:

 Ultimately, risks being fairly priced compresses margins, and removes more of the reimbursement benefits by way of lower costs. 

Seems like this could hurt insurers in terms of actuarial rates, being more accurately calculated and priced. So there should be a major adjustment to how they price risks, otherwise they keep the same models, and charge the same rates so healthcare providers will have to give in. If not prices will rise to “fight” it. It’s crazy because “fairness” in this case, means better outcomes for patients, which ultimately wipes out a lot of revenue, and profits for the healthcare sector. Now this also hits pharmaceutical companies in some ways. As well as physicians and doctors. The assumption here turns into, fairly priced risks models. This creates less invasive and unnecessary procedures. Which reduced premiums, and lower out of pocket rates. Which means less prescriptions, and tighter safety standards. Eventually the costs cuts follow payroll, and less money spent paying physicians, surgeons, and drug manufacturers. All of this because the government, or some other entity is directly or indirectly (not having to shell out billions) looking out for the American people who help fund this entire mess. So more power is taken away from providers who essentially were the inadvertent risks model adjusters in a sense. Because “you need more tests” means you have to keep paying, so I can keep my Mercedes.” “We’re not treating, we’re retrieving,….profits, by any means necessary.” 

Here’s where providers will have to differentiate themselves from the pack with truly competitive prices or actually providing quality care and services. Not just skimming left and right. Plus there was and is always the priesthood/gatekeeping mentality and business model that was always there. “We studied this for over 10yrs, you don’t know. We know what’s best for you. Even if it means unnecessary costs, and procedures are being carried out to extract money from your pocket”. You also have the same dynamics as money driven medicine described. More competition creating healthcare inflation. They will just go harder and fight more to find added costs. 

Aggressive Pragmatism.

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At some point in your investment journey you’re going to be wrong. Markets can be unpredictable, and when sentiment turns negative, there is nothing you can do other than take advantage of that negativity. The beauty of having a lot of buyers and sellers is more opportunity to use that momentum in your favor. When I speak of momentum It’s not trading lingo. I mean waiting until the odds are on your side to be aggressive and pragmatic. 

The Restructuring/GoodWill Hoax.

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When you run your eyes through an annual report, you’ll see a lot of bullshit language. This language covers up real expenses like taxes, and bad investments. They do this in the form of deferred taxes, and restructuring. Let me break it down in layman’s terms. A company discreetly gives themself away with deferred tax payments and buying other companies inefficiently.

They basically say indirectly “we acquired some PP&E, and subsidiaries that have to be accounted for at some point. It’s an asset until the irs takes its cut. We also overpaid for this great company that actually turned out to be a bad idea, so our goodwill must be impaired legally. Even though goodwill is growing as an asset in your eyes, it’s actually just a bad deal we have to pay for otherwise gaap or fasb accounting firms will have a hissy fit.” Always question the language of a 10-k report.

The footnotes of a 10-k report will tell you how much value was destroyed for that particular period of time. 

Illusion of Value.

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Just because it appears on the books, doesn’t mean there is value to be gained from acquiring the business. There are many metrics that are disguised as assets, via cash flow statements, p&l’s & balance sheet’s that are actually just phantom earnings. 

Worst-Case Market Scenario? 

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Worst-Case Market Scenario? 

1). You invest at the top of a secular bull run.

2). You follow the herd of investments parrots into whatever everyone is overweighted in via the s&p index. 

3). You’re impatient and indecisive.

4). You speak and allocate in absolute terms. 

5). You lead with your emotions, and disregard analysis coupled with objectivity. 

6). You never change your mind. 

7). You believe your thesis instead of reassessing the economic characteristics. 

8). You spend time sifting through 13-F’s while claiming intellectual superiority over the layman if returns skew in your favor. 

9). You sell in order to cover living expenses.

10). You go to cash and never came back. 

11). You dabble passively instead of utilizing strategy aggression. 

12). You think it’s you and not the dynamics at play. 

13). You claim it is easy. 

Health Based Economy.

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Being that healthcare is facing potential costs gridlock, there is only one thing the U.S. can do to resolve this issue. They can take money out of one pocket, and put it into the other pocket. Temporarily writing off (almost literally) any interest and fees required in order to move forward. 

The Head vs Heart of Investing.

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How does one think about an industry that is incentivized to heal, treat and cure people? On the basis of capitalism, it’s profit over patients. On the basis of patients, it’s care over costs. If higher costs lead to more incentives, there will be no motivation to improve the care. If an entity subsidizes the costs of care to those most stretched, the providers of that care might remain complacent mitigating career risks. 

Why you buy?

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Buying a company after they report earnings appears counterintuitive. Why? Because it implies you are buying on the basis of short term gain, and sentiment, rather than on good fundamentals.

Money Trumps Minds.

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Any time the stock market rises to new levels you get interested buyers. These buyers are typically average individuals. They do little to no research, but hear about their friends generating a ton of profits. Because of this, they open accounts, and the short term frenzy intensifies. Everyone from the bar tender, to the hairdresser begins giving stock tips.

Your grand parents even school you on the merits of not missing out like they did during the 1930’s or in the 50’s. One given sector becomes the hot topic, and easy pick. Everyone feels richer, and arrogance, coupled with ignorance gets classified as intelligence. We always know how this movie ends, yet we pretend it’s different this time. Ultimately  relishing the spoils of bear market rallies, dead cat bounces, dips, and any other technical nomenclature that sounds made up to the untrained mind.

The kicker? the market typically rises higher to the tune of something like 70% of the time. A 70% is passing. However it only takes one bad grade to prevent you from graduating on time. 

Inevitable Risks.

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What does it mean to bear risk? It means you’re going to deal with unpredictable outcomes. Regardless of whether you think you are hedged or protected. Something is going to arise that you never even thought to account for in regard to your investment decisions. 

Investment Returns.

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On a misguided note let’s quickly discuss risk free premiums. It essentially means the rate you expect to get for investing in risky assets i.e, stocks vs less risky assets i.e, bonds. How does one decide if the premium should be higher or lower? It depends on many factors. Your time horizon.

Your risk profile. Your understanding of how the stock market, bond market, or other securities markets work. On top of that is considering the amount of capital you plan on deploying, what type of companies you’re buying, (micro/small/large/mega cap, industries, sectors, mature or emerging, etc.). Even with all of this in mind, your risk free premium might not ensure an adequate rate of return. This is because there are unpredictable probable outcomes, and a plethora of risk factors that could affect your portfolio.

Just because you have a high risk premium doesn’t mean the businesses you own will deliver more value. Just because your premium is lower, there is no guaranteed profit or zero  probability of portfolio drawdown. 

Bright Opacity.

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Even with perfect foresight your investment thesis still might not work in your favor. There are far too many variables to consider when deciding on a given investment opportunity. Simply put, leave room in case you’re completely wrong. This prevents too much risks or drawdown over time. 

Micro over macro.

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It doesn’t matter how impressive the macro environment looks. You still have to base your assessment on a given business or asset at the micro level. Keeping in mind that you’re investing money now, to get back more money later, discounted back to the present day. In other words inflation eats up some and in other cases all of your current dollars. Because of this investing requires you to expect and try to obtain a higher rate of return over time. Minus fees, and the perpetual rate of inflation. There is also opportunity costs that come into play. 

Assignment Alignment.

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Many times we assign purpose based on aptitude, success, and positive feedback loops. In other words it’s not something you were necessarily given. More like something you chose based on positive experiences. 

Delusion & Confidence.

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Sometimes it’s helpful to be a bit delusional. This allows you to gain enough confidence to go for what you truly want in life. Once you get closer to that goal you must realize that delusion becomes counter productive to assessing the reality of what you need to get to that next level of success. Contradictory right!? This is what makes life perplexing. 

Immaturity & Premature Cuts.

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This is a rushed opinion, and anecdotal. 

It’s a sad world when a fed chairman is subpoenaed for wanting to prevent economic collapse. Put another way, politicians that are business oriented, hate high interest rate environments. They want rates as close to zero as possible. This helps them maintain favorable borrowing conditions. Cutting rates also lowers the cost of capital, and citizens would give these politicians credit for making things prematurely lower.

Meanwhile the market seems to be overheating, while the average consumer is struggling to pay for their essential goods and services. There are opposing dynamics at play. Tampering with rates, opens the door to more chaos, the probability of inflation rising even further, and ultimately some form of economic turmoil. Not to mention the lagging indicators that play out over a 12 to 18 month period. Aside from that is the negative implications of premature rate cuts and what ends up becoming the new norm 5 to 10 years from now after the dust settles.

Ego, threats, and political pressure do nothing to protect the people that help maintain this economy. 

Double Down.

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Most people will remain exactly the same year after year. Why? Because they never change anything. Focus on what would make you stand out, and double down on that process. 

2026!

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You may be feeling like you are struggling. I get it. Your finances are completely stretched. You owe every bill collector known to man, and barely have an enough time to exhale. You may feel like there are no opportunities coming your way. You might be discouraged. However you can switch that mindset around. If what you’re doing is not working, it’s time to adjust. Meaning a complete overhaul on your daily life is absolutely essential to making it through this year. Whatever you’ve done up until now that has not gotten you effective results needs to be thrown out. You need different thoughts, different actions, a different diet, and fitness routine. You need to stop hanging out with people who are stuck in the past, and getting around those two steps ahead you. You need to be doing 2-3 things per day to get you closer to your ultimate goals. Don’t skip days. Every day. So 3 actions daily for 365 days straight is 1,095 steps, decisions and actions that put you in position to win. 

Fed Speak.

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If we pay attention to what the fed is doing, it could make for a more objective picture of reality. Forward guidance should be prohibited. All it does is create hype and sentiment around unpredictable outcomes. The fed is going to tighten, ease, or hold. Sometimes it seems as though we take these actions as a means to give opinions on something we have no control over. History will always give us indications as to what may be best. 

Respect.

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Demanding respect from others is not about being bossy. It’s not a matter of seniority. It’s about showing people how you want to be treated. You do this by not tolerating disrespect, and by having self respect through actions and consistent behavior. 

Before it needs fixed.

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Preventative Maintenance can be a key part of keeping your life disaster free. Whether it’s dental cleanings every 6 months, emergency funds for unexpected expenses, or keeping capital reserves when asset prices fall below attractive valuations. It appears to be the case, that a backup plan for what unlikely events, is better than misguided assumptions about future outcomes.

Your Plan or Theirs?

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Make plans or plans will be made for you. Simple right? In other words, find and cultivate your purpose. Because if you don’t get a routine, and set goals for yourself, you’ll be hired to help someone else’s dreams become a reality. 

Reserve Your Seat.

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One doesn’t just steal, capture or kill without an agenda or incentive. Resources are either vast or scarce. This being the case there is only one way to take advantage of this diametrically opposed system. Remove the hidden and in many cases visible variables. These variables exist to the political eye as fiscal or monetary obstacles. 

Investments Gone Wrong?

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When it comes to buying businesses via the stock market post mortem’s are very necessary. Not every acquisition you make is going to make you money or do well. Because of this it’s important to go over or write about why you bought the company. What when wrong, and how to know when you spot something similar in the future. This way you can avoid making the same mistake twice. Preserving your capital, and building more wealth over time. 

They talk. We don’t listen.

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Market talk is relatively repetitive. It’s up. It’s down. It’s sideways. It’s flat. Good bad, and indifferent.

You still have to deploy capital, or sit on the sidelines. This being said, a current fed chairman leaving, for the potential of getting a dovish fed chairman, declining electrical vehicular sales, political tensions, and inflationary pressure could cause a significant dynamics to occur over the next 3 to 5 years. This does nothing to predict, or prepare for what’s to come. It’s just more annoying and anonymous market commentary. The only thing left to do is wait for the chips to fall where they may, and hope to have plenty of capital to deploy. 

The Same Coin.

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Two things are certain when it comes to work. You either going to work for yourself or someone else. Working for someone else is simple. Apply for the job, do the work, and hope they never lay you off or fire you. Move up the ladder.

Rinse and repeat. Hoping you earn enough to retire on time and comfortably. Working for yourself is chaotic. Your income is unpredictable yet possesses unlimited potential. You are responsible for every aspect of the job.

You hire, you design logos, you automate processes to free up more time to get paying customers. If it works out, you could be looking at more autonomy, and living life closer to your own terms. No matter which route you take it requires sacrifice. Either outcome is going to be difficult. This being the case it becomes a matter of getting the most out of your ultimate decision.

I really don’t know what else to say or how to end this. Life is cyclical, repetitive and ultimately pretty predictable. The beauty lies in what appears to be unpredictable or serendipitous. 

2025.

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1,237 days later. The last day of year. Feels like I haven’t learned much. A few things come to mind.

1). Cutting costs is just as important to your bottom line as increasing productivity. If not more important. 

2). Overworking is a good way to get to the grave faster.

3). Sleep is the real energy booster.

4). Be grateful for what you do have because you could easily have far less.

5). Markets really haven’t changed much as far as fear and greed go. 

6). Utilizing the most efficient processes will take you much further than brute force. 

7). Daily writing still does something for my soul. 

“You won’t believe this.”

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When life gets too easy, people become disinterested. They become bored and depressed. Why? Because they can easily predict what’s coming next. A life full of unpredictable challenges is one we openly and sometimes secretly strive to live daily. 

The price you pay…

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An investment is only interpreted as wise after the fact. If a company makes headlines for declining profits, the stock gets sold in droves. Many average investors see this as a sign to stay away. They only want investments that go up in price. Disregarding the actual value of the business tied to the stock.

However a scenario like this often leads to undervalued equities. It takes a lot of courage, patience, and in some cases contrarian thinking to see the  opportunity for increased returns via an unloved company by way of a falling price. This of course assumes the fundamentals of the company are steadily improving over time after short term disappointments fade into the background. The tricky part is the time frame we see as retail investors in the short term (less then 4 years via 10-k reports). This is where you have to illustrate independent research and conviction in the company you are interested in buying.

A falling price and steady growth via economic characteristics makes for the possibility of sound investing, and positive returns over the long run. 

Perpetual Passivity?

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An investment strategy or plan working once does not necessarily indicate a sure sign of how to generate returns. You could have easily been helped by bullish or bearish sentiment, and a good deal of luck and probability. 

Market Psychology.

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It would seem logical that a lot of stock market investment activity is based on expectations. When those expectations become widespread, they get classified as sentiment. More times than not, this will give you clues as to whether the market is overheating or producing bargains. Sentiment also seems to coincide with the illogical nature of emotions that are a symptom of human behavior. Unfortunately emotions don’t generate returns. Being analytical, patient, and opportunistic are factors that work in our favor over the long term. 

Less planning more progress.

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Creating a plan for the day, the week, the month, and year is great. You get to see where you want to go. You also have more clarity, and know what needs to be done. The issue is too much planning creating unnecessary paralysis. Going into next year, the moment you write down a single goal, do 3 things in real time to move closer towards that goal.

Otherwise penalize yourself by not being able to move forward. In other words, did you complete steps 1 & 2 but miss the third step? Do not pass go and collect 200 dollars. Push yourself to finish what you start all year in 2026. This way you actually make progress instead of simply being a scattered mess with nothing to show for it.