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Vancouver-South Granville

Latest update: February 5, 2026
N
MLA: Brenda Bailey
New Democratic Party
NDP safe
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Recent electoral history | Vancouver-South Granville


2017 2020 2024 Projection NDP 62% ± 8% 53.2% 57.3% 64.3% CPBC 23% ± 6% 0.0% 0.5% 25.0% BCG 12% ± 5% 15.3% 16.6% 10.7% BCU 0% ± 0% 30.8% 25.0% 0.0%

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338Canada Vancouver-South Granville projection

Latest update: February 5, 2026

Vancouver-South Granville 54% 70% 62% ± 8% NDP 16% 29% 23% ± 6% CPBC 7% 17% 12% ± 5% BCG NDP 2024 64.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 5, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Vancouver-South Granville >99% NDP <1% CPBC <1% BCG Odds of winning | February 5, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Vancouver-South Granville

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 23% ± 6% NDP 62% ± 8% BCG 12% ± 5% ONE 2% ± 2% CEN 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Vancouver-South Granville 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN February 5, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP 52% CPBC 20% BCU 13% BCG 12% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP 51% CPBC 26% BCG 11% BCU 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 47% CPBC 31% BCG 11% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP 48% CPBC 29% BCG 12% BCU 9% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP 49% CPBC 29% BCG 12% BCU 8% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP 47% CPBC 31% BCG 13% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 47% CPBC 32% BCG 13% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 48% CPBC 32% BCG 12% BCU 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP 51% CPBC 36% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP 51% CPBC 37% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 51% CPBC 37% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 51% CPBC 37% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 51% CPBC 37% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 51% CPBC 37% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 51% CPBC 37% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP 51% CPBC 37% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 51% CPBC 38% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP 52% CPBC 37% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP 52% CPBC 37% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP 51% CPBC 38% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP 51% CPBC 38% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP 51% CPBC 38% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP 52% CPBC 38% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 52% CPBC 37% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 52% CPBC 37% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 53% CPBC 37% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP 52% CPBC 37% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 52% CPBC 37% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 52% CPBC 37% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 52% CPBC 37% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 52% CPBC 36% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP 52% CPBC 36% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP 53% CPBC 35% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 53% CPBC 35% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 53% CPBC 35% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 53% CPBC 35% BCG 12% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP 64% CPBC 25% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP 64% CPBC 25% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP 64% CPBC 25% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP 64% CPBC 25% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP 64% CPBC 25% BCG 11% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP 63% CPBC 23% BCG 11% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP 62% CPBC 23% BCG 12% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP 62% CPBC 23% BCG 12% CEN 2% ONE 2% BCU 0% 2026-02-05

Odds of winning | Vancouver-South Granville

BCU <1% CPBC <1% NDP >99% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 5, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP 94% BCG 6% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP 99% BCG 1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 NDP 99% CPBC 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2026-02-05 2024-03-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% CPBC <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-26