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Surrey South

Latest update: February 5, 2026
C
MLA: Brent Chapman
Conservative Party of BC
CPBC likely
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Recent electoral history | Surrey South


2017 2020 2024 Projection CPBC 54% ± 9% 0.0% 0.0% 58.8% NDP 40% ± 9% 29.5% 35.1% 41.2% ONE 3% ± 3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BCG 1% ± 1% 10.5% 9.3% 0.0% BCU 0% ± 0% 56.0% 55.4% 0.0%

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338Canada Surrey South projection

Latest update: February 5, 2026

Surrey South 45% 63% 54% ± 9% ▼ CPBC 31% 49% 40% ± 9% ▼ NDP CPBC 2024 58.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 5, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Surrey South 96%▼ CPBC 4%▲ NDP <1% ONEOdds of winning | February 5, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Surrey South

BCU 0% ± 0% CPBC 54% ± 9% NDP 40% ± 9% BCG 1% ± 1% ONE 3% ± 3% CEN 2% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Surrey South 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 BCU CPBC NDP BCG ONE CEN February 5, 2026 2024-03-26 BCU 32% NDP 31% CPBC 29% BCG 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC 34% NDP 29% BCU 28% BCG 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC 42% NDP 28% BCU 23% BCG 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC 39% NDP 29% BCU 24% BCG 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC 40% NDP 30% BCU 22% BCG 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC 43% NDP 29% BCU 20% BCG 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC 44% NDP 29% BCU 19% BCG 7% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC 45% NDP 30% BCU 18% BCG 6% ONE 0% CEN 0% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC 57% NDP 35% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 59% NDP 35% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 59% NDP 35% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 58% NDP 35% BCG 7% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 58% NDP 35% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 58% NDP 35% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 CPBC 59% NDP 35% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 59% NDP 35% BCG 6% CEN 0% ONE 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 63% NDP 37% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 62% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 62% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 63% NDP 37% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 63% NDP 37% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 63% NDP 37% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC 63% NDP 37% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC 62% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC 62% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC 61% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC 62% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC 62% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC 62% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC 62% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC 62% NDP 38% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC 61% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC 61% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC 61% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC 61% NDP 39% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC 60% NDP 40% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC 59% NDP 41% ONE 0% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC 56% NDP 41% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCG 0% BCU 0% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC 55% NDP 41% BCG 1% ONE 1% CEN 0% BCU 0% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 CPBC 54% NDP 40% ONE 3% CEN 2% BCG 1% BCU 0% 2026-02-05

Odds of winning | Surrey South

BCU <1% CPBC 96% NDP 4% BCG <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-05-01 2026-09-01 Election 2024 CPBC NDP BCG February 5, 2026 2024-03-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 NDP >99% BCG <1% CPBC <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 NDP 51% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 NDP 52% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 NDP 51% CPBC 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 NDP 76% CPBC 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-26 2024-09-27 NDP 30% CPBC 21% BCG <1% 2024-09-27 2024-09-28 CPBC 68% NDP 17% BCG <1% 2024-09-28 2024-09-29 CPBC 97% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-29 2024-09-30 CPBC 93% NDP 6% BCG <1% 2024-09-30 2024-10-01 CPBC 95% NDP 5% BCG <1% 2024-10-01 2024-10-02 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-02 2024-10-03 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-03 2024-10-04 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-10-04 2024-10-05 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-05 2024-10-06 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-06 2024-10-07 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-07 2024-10-08 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-08 2024-10-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-09 2024-10-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-10 2024-10-11 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-11 2024-10-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-12 2024-10-13 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-13 2024-10-14 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-14 2024-10-15 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-15 2024-10-16 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-10-16 2024-10-17 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-17 2024-10-18 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-18 2024-10-20 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-20 2024-11-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-11-10 2025-02-09 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-02-09 2025-06-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-06-18 2025-09-13 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-09-13 2025-10-21 CPBC >99% BCG <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-12-20 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2025-12-20 2026-02-05 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2026-02-05 2024-03-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-03-26 2024-05-10 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-10 2024-05-18 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-05-18 2024-06-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-01 2024-06-26 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-06-26 2024-07-12 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-07-12 2024-08-01 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-01 2024-08-14 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-08-14 2024-09-03 CPBC >99% NDP <1% BCG <1% 2024-09-03 2024-09-20 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-20 2024-09-21 CPBC 99% NDP 1% BCG <1% 2024-09-21 2024-09-23 CPBC 98% NDP 2% BCG <1% 2024-09-23 2024-09-25 CPBC 97% NDP 3% BCG <1% 2024-09-25 2024-09-26 CPBC 96% NDP 4% BCG <1% 2024-09-26